Following the deal reached with Iran, the first comprehensive survey on how the US public views the process has been released. The poll sheds light on both the course of the war and the future of the agreement, revealing striking data while also illuminating how American voters assess the developments of recent months.
According to the new survey conducted by CBS News and YouGov, a large majority of Americans support ending the conflict rather than waiting for further concessions from Iran. Yet the same research shows the public holds serious concerns about the war's outcomes, the Trump administration's strategy, and the long-term effects of the deal.
Let's take a closer look at the survey results...
78% of Americans agree
Follow Our News on Google Add us to your favorites to instantly access the latest news and breaking developments via Google.
According to the poll, 78% of respondents support ending the war at its current stage, while only 22% favor continuing the conflict until Iran makes more concessions. On the surface, this result paints a positive picture for the Trump administration.
Administration circles interpret the public's broad desire to end the war as support for the White House's line. However, a closer look at the survey's details reveals that this backing does not stem from satisfaction with the content of the deal.
For instance, when asked which side the deal favors, only 22% said it was advantageous for the US. In contrast, 37% thought Iran gained more, and 41% believed the deal was balanced between the parties.
Even among Trump's own party voters, just 39% considered the deal more advantageous for America. This signals that even within his base, the deal is not seen as a diplomatic victory.
'For the US public, the main issue is not who won or lost the war'
Security and terrorism expert, retired intelligence colonel Coşkun Başbuğ, evaluating the poll results, said the American public's priority is not the winner or loser of the war. According to Başbuğ, the fundamental factor shaping voter behavior is economic conditions and their impact on daily life.
Başbuğ stressed the need to read the poll results carefully, saying, "These surveys certainly send important messages, but I do not think the American people view the issue through the lens of whether Iran won or lost, or whether the US achieved its strategic goals. The priority of the ordinary citizen in the US is their own economic circumstances, far more than foreign policy.
People today look at the price they pay at the grocery store, fuel costs, energy expenses, and their standard of living. That's why they care about how much the continuation of the war costs them."
Pointing to the war's impact on global energy markets, Başbuğ noted, "Every rise in oil prices not only increases fuel costs. It drives up prices across a wide range of areas, from transportation to production, from food to basic consumer goods. The American public is aware of this. That's why a significant portion wants the war to end as soon as possible, rather than continue. Because they believe that only then can markets normalize, price pressures ease, and economic stability be achieved. In short, the citizen's basic expectation is not geopolitical success stories, but a more comfortable life and stronger purchasing power."
'Reactions against Israel have grown both among the public and in political circles'
Başbuğ noted that social backlash against Israel has also intensified in the US recently, and said its political repercussions are beginning to be seen.
He commented, "Lately we have seen a serious rise in anti-Israel sentiment and criticism of Israeli policies in US public opinion. Initially this was more visible in certain segments of society, but now it is starting to spill over into the political arena. Therefore, it is possible to say that in the debate between those who want the war to continue and those who want it to end, this social shift is as influential as economic concerns."
Doubts about stopping Iran's nuclear program
The survey also asked respondents whether the war was strategically successful.
Forty-five percent of Americans said the war was not a strategic success, while only 29% believed the operations achieved their strategic objectives. According to experts, this picture shows the public is dissatisfied not only with the costs of the war but also with its outcomes.
Especially regarding one of the Trump administration's most frequently emphasized objectives during the conflict — stopping Iran's nuclear program — voters appear deeply skeptical. Throughout the war, the Trump administration argued that its primary goal was to permanently halt Iran's nuclear program. But the CBS poll reveals that a large majority of Americans doubt this goal will be realized.
Sixty-nine percent of respondents think that even if the deal becomes final, Iran's nuclear program will not be fully stopped. Among Republicans in the survey, 45% also do not believe the agreement will permanently end Iran's nuclear activities. These results align with findings from another Fox News poll conducted in mid-June, in which 64% of registered voters expressed the view that a possible peace deal would not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in the future.
Coşkun Başbuğ pointed out that Iran's current priority is economic gains rather than political or military ones, and said that after the war ends, the international agenda will refocus on Iran's nuclear program.
Newsletter Subscription Form
Reminding that Iran faced serious internal and external pressures before the war, Başbuğ said, "At the current point, we see that Iran is primarily focused on economic gains. Because we must not forget that Iran was going through an extremely critical process before the war began. Economic woes were growing inside the country, social unrest was rising, and various debates about the regime's future were emerging. Some circles were even discussing the possibility of internal turmoil and even the risk of fragmentation. But with the onset of the war, all these topics were pushed into the background and the international agenda moved to a completely different point. The nuclear issue is important for Iran. We will see what outcome the deal brings, but Iran seems unlikely to give it up easily."
Pessimism dominates on Iran's regional influence
The survey assessed not only the nuclear program but also Iran's regional influence and future behavior.
According to the results:
- Sixty-eight percent of respondents think the deal will not prevent Iran from threatening other countries.
- Forty-eight percent of Republicans share the same view.
- Seventy-nine percent say the deal will not bring the Iranian government closer to the US.
- Seventy-four percent believe the deal will not make the Iranian people safer or freer.
These figures indicate that the public thinks the deal can only stop the current conflict but will be insufficient to solve broader geopolitical problems.
View that Iran was not weakened is widespread
Throughout the war, the Trump administration argued that Iran's military capacity was heavily damaged and the country was significantly weakened. But the public does not share this assessment.
According to the survey, only 37% of Americans think Iran is weaker than before the war. Thirty-eight percent say Iran's strength is unchanged, while 25% believe Iran has grown stronger after the war. In other words, roughly 6 in 10 Americans believe Iran remains at least as powerful as it was before the war.
Experts assess that Iran's continued influence over the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to affect global energy markets contribute to this perception.
'The war created more problems than it solved'
One striking finding of the poll concerns the overall balance sheet of the war.
Fifty-seven percent of respondents said the war created more problems than it solved, while only 21% thought it solved more problems than it created. This result shows that a substantial part of the public believes the strategic and political costs of the conflict outweigh the gains.
"This situation must be evaluated separately for each country," said Coşkun Başbuğ, offering the following analysis:
-- For Israel, for example, the war created far greater problems than expected. Israel became more isolated internationally, and in the US, criticism and tendencies toward ostracism increased. Therefore, Israel was one of the heaviest losers of the war.
When viewed from Iran's perspective, the process presented a different picture. Instead of deepening its existing problems, the war strengthened Iran's hand in some areas and enabled it to find solutions to various issues. Hence, Iran can be seen as a party that gained certain advantages from the developments.
-- For the US, the process brought new problems. Washington suddenly had to manage the Israel issue more directly and faced the realities in the region. Ultimately, the US had to complete this process without a concrete gain in the Middle East, while bearing significant economic costs.
Trump administration seen as unprepared
The survey also asked voters whether the Trump administration correctly calculated the war's economic consequences.
Sixty-four percent of respondents said the war's effects on the global economy were greater than the administration anticipated. Especially due to energy prices, global trade routes, and developments in the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting economic fluctuations are assessed to have raised questions in the public mind about the administration's crisis planning.
Americans worry about a protracted conflict
A Fox News survey released in mid-June also revealed voters' discomfort with long-term military engagements. According to that poll, 70% of registered voters expressed concern that the war could turn into a long-term commitment, while 87% said it was important for the US to avoid a prolonged conflict.
Although the Trump administration initially predicted the conflict could conclude within four to six weeks, the fact that the war has continued for about four months is counted among the factors fueling public impatience.
Don't Miss: 'Katargate' blow to Miçotakis View the news
