The Iran war, which began on February 28 with Israeli and US attacks, has been under a fragile ceasefire since April 8. A framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
As the frontlines calm down, the political and diplomatic impact of the war continues to grow. The process focuses not only on who has the upper hand on the battlefield but also on which side gains more advantage at the negotiating table.
Severe military attrition on Iran's side
During the five-week offensive, much of Iran's air defense systems, a significant portion of its missile stockpiles, launch ramps, senior military command structures, and key nuclear facilities were damaged. This represents a heavy military attrition for Iran.
However, Iran's ability to withstand the joint US-Israeli pressure in some regional capitals is seen as a significant outcome in itself. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Garibabadi stated that his country has "achieved great victories" in the war and that the agreement came to the table more because of "military successes" than diplomacy.
The Strait of Hormuz returns as a bargaining chip
Iran has transformed the Strait of Hormuz from a theoretical threat into a concrete pressure tool. It has not fully closed the strait but disruptions have convincingly demonstrated its ability to threaten closure.
Now, Washington appears to be making sanction relief a bargaining chip to reopen a passage that was never fully closed. This shows that the agreement creates an economic and strategic negotiation space rather than purely a military one.
Framework exists on nuclear warheads, details deferred
The expected agreement framework includes Iran reaffirming that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. However, details regarding enriched uranium stockpiles and a possible pause in enrichment are left for a more comprehensive second agreement.
There is no full consensus yet; the draft on the table serves as a framework that lays the groundwork for negotiations on enriched uranium stockpiles and enrichment suspension. It is also noted that Iran has previously tended to prolong such talks.
Sanction relief could strengthen Tehran's position
Potential sanction relief could expand Tehran's maneuvering room domestically. Such a step might provide more resources for military programs and proxy networks, although the agreement text does not address ballistic missiles, support for armed groups, or the regime's power structure.
This situation has led to interpretations that the final text might be softer than what diplomacy could have achieved before the war. Even if an agreement is reached, its durability will depend on subsequent negotiations.
Expectation gap between Washington and Tel Aviv
It is expressed that the Trump administration initially hoped for a rapid regime collapse when entering the conflict, but when this did not happen, the priority shifted to ending the war. Iran believes Washington will not quickly return to military intervention as the November midterm elections approach.
The Israeli side is reportedly deeply disappointed with the outcome. While Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared aligned goals at the war's start, this alignment diverged once Washington decided to end the conflict.
The emerging picture resembles a temporary pause in a much longer struggle rather than a completed peace agreement. Each side may present this as a gain from their perspective; the real test will be whether subsequent talks produce binding and verifiable limitations.
