Tajikistan is seeking alternative fuel sources after rising domestic prices and its heavy dependence on petroleum products from Russia. The Dushanbe government is discussing additional supply options with China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Belarus, while the joint construction of a refinery by Central Asian countries is also being considered as a long-term option.
More than 90% of the country’s petroleum product imports come from Russia. Russia’s decision to extend restrictions on exports of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products through January 31, 2027, has brought Tajikistan’s search for supply security to the forefront.
Diesel prices in Tajikistan rise to $1.96
On July 28, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon instructed the relevant institutions to accelerate supplies of fuel and liquefied gas, meet domestic market needs and maintain price stability.
Data from the Antimonopoly Service showed that the country imported approximately 600,000 tons of petroleum products between January and June 2026. Imports rose by 6.4%, or 35,900 tons, compared with the same period in 2025.
Russia accounted for 91.1% of these imports. Belarus supplied 2.8%, Turkmenistan 1.9%, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 1% each, and Kyrgyzstan 0.9%. The combined share of other countries was recorded at 1.5%.
The average contract value of imported petroleum products during the first six months of the year also rose by 4.8% compared with the same period last year.
Tajikistan’s Transport Ministry said that rising global oil prices had increased diesel costs. The price of diesel rose from approximately 10.40 somoni to 16–18 somoni per liter, raising its dollar price from $1.13 to between $1.74 and $1.96.
The ministry said higher diesel costs had also increased road construction, repair and maintenance expenses.
Dushanbe considers alternative suppliers
On July 29, Tajikistan’s Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma discussed the possibility of purchasing gasoline and diesel from China with Chinese Ambassador to Dushanbe Guo Zhijun.
That same day, Emomali Rahmon discussed increasing petroleum product shipments from Kazakhstan with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The Tajik government is also discussing potential fuel supplies with Turkmenistan, Iran and Belarus.
Russia’s export curbs increase supply pressure
Russia imposed restrictions several times during 2026 on exports of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products to stabilize prices in the domestic market. Some of the restrictions were extended on July 30 through January 31, 2027.
The measures were introduced after fluctuations in oil prices and Ukrainian drone attacks targeting oil refinery infrastructure in Russia. Russian officials did not identify the attacks as the direct cause of the export restrictions.
Maksim Shevrenkov, an oil market expert at the Energy and Finance Institute Foundation, said that the intergovernmental agreement on duty-free fuel supplies between Russia and Tajikistan was not covered by the current restrictions.
Shevrenkov said Russia supplies more than 90% of Tajikistan’s imported fuel consumption, but the volumes needed by the country could be restored within a short period. Approximately 200,000 tons of gasoline were shipped directly from Russia by rail during the first half of the year, a level close to that of the previous year.
The expert said diesel supplies were more difficult, shipments could recover in less than a month, and Tajikistan had fuel reserves for approximately 1.5–2 months.
Logistical and cost challenges in sourcing fuel from China
According to Shevrenkov, the purpose of contacts with China was to establish a backup channel in case shipments from Russia declined for an extended period. He said Chinese fuel would be significantly more expensive than Russian products because of more complex logistics.
There is no direct rail connection between Tajikistan and China. A rail route through Kazakhstan could be more suitable for large-volume shipments, but cost and logistical challenges could make a long-term contract with China difficult.
Shevrenkov also said shipments to Tajikistan could be increased rapidly after maintenance work at Russian refineries was completed.
Abdulgani Mamadzimov, head of the Silk Road–Consolidation Route National Fund, said large-scale fuel supplies from China could remain limited. Mamadzimov noted that the absence of a direct railway and oil pipeline between the two countries would increase costs because shipments would have to pass through the rail networks of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Mamadzimov argued that, under current conditions, purchasing fuel from Kazakhstan would be more practical and less expensive. In assessing the risks to shipments from Russia, he also raised Ukrainian drone attacks targeting oil refinery infrastructure in Russia.
The expert said the duty-free mechanism for Russian fuel supplies had taken shape as part of a broader set of agreements between Russia and Tajikistan, including military cooperation and labor migration. He argued that a prolonged decline in Russian petroleum product supplies could affect Russia’s strategic presence in Tajikistan and Central Asia more broadly.
Mamadzimov also said that, from China’s perspective, Tajikistan offered another opportunity in the transport sector, as China could export more electric vehicles to the country.
Proposal for a joint refinery in Central Asia
Two days after fuel supply talks with China and Kazakhstan, on July 31, Emomali Rahmon proposed that Central Asian countries consider jointly building a large oil refinery using modern technologies.
Rahmon said the facility should take the petroleum product needs of the countries in the region into account. The proposal came after the instruction to maintain price stability in Tajikistan and Dushanbe’s talks with several countries on additional supplies.
The Tajik government has not announced plans to abandon fuel from Russia or replace these supplies entirely with Chinese products. In the short term, Dushanbe is considering alternative shipping channels, while in the long term it is assessing new regional production capacity.
