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Over 400,000 Russian soldiers return from front as Zelenskyy warns of new mobilization wave
At least 400,000 soldiers who left the front line in Russia have returned to civilian life, according to an investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed that Russia is planning a new mobilization wave involving 300,000 to 500,000 people after the September elections.
New data has emerged on the social impact of the war in Ukraine and Moscow's possible military plans. According to an investigation by Novaya Gazeta Europe journalists, at least 400,000 soldiers in Russia have so far left the front line and returned to civilian life.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy, however, made a different claim in an interview with Sky News. Zelenskyy asserted that Russia will launch a new wave of mobilization after the State Duma elections to be held in September. The Ukrainian leader said the Moscow administration aims to put 300,000 to 500,000 people under arms at the beginning of October.
How was the 417,000 figure calculated?
Novaya Gazeta Europe's calculation is based on a statement by Sergey Novikov, head of the Russian Presidential Directorate for Social Projects, in December 2025. Novikov had said that 167,000 people applied to the 'Defenders of the Fatherland' fund, established to help soldiers returning from the front, and obtained veteran status.
In the same statement, Novikov said that 250,000 people who returned from the front had 'not yet been employed,' but Russian state media quickly removed this figure from headlines. The newspaper calculated that by adding the two figures, the number of returnees reached 417,000.
Independent estimates point to similar numbers
Journalists also reached the same conclusion using a different method. It is estimated that so far in the war, which has lasted more than four years, about 1.5 to 1.6 million contract soldiers and mobilized individuals have been sent to the front. The Russian military presence actively fighting in Ukraine is around 700,000, and according to independent sources the death toll has exceeded 350,000.
Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) analysts also consider the 400,000 figure a lower bound. A CIT analyst said, 'To me, the range of 500,000 to 800,000 seems quite realistic. This covers all those who have officially returned for any reason.'
Profile of returnees: severely wounded, former prisoners, and volunteers
According to Novaya Gazeta Europe, a significant proportion of those returning are severely wounded soldiers. Even by the most conservative estimate, at least 300,000 soldiers should have been discharged due to injuries by the end of 2025.
In addition, it is estimated that about 31,000 former prisoners, largely sent to the front from prisons by the Wagner group in exchange for pardons, have also returned. The newspaper points out that some of these individuals may have later re-entered prison and been sent back to war. Moreover, about 50,000 volunteers who signed contracts with Wagner and other entities are also considered to have returned from the front.
The investigation warns that if there is no radical change in the current course of the war, another 700,000 people with combat experience could return to civilian life when the fighting ends. The newspaper also wrote that, according to open-source data, former soldiers returning from the front are involved in an 'abnormally high' number of murders and severe beatings compared to ordinary men.
Zelenskyy: Putin will act after elections
In an interview with Sky News ahead of his visit to Washington, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence had detected preparations for a new mobilization in Russia. Zelenskyy claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin postponed this move until after the Duma elections in September because he feared a public backlash.
Zelenskyy said, 'He is not doing it openly because he fears his own society, but he will do it at the beginning of October if we do not create problems in logistics, weapons, petrol and diesel, and if our partners do not impose sweeping sanctions against his aggression.' The Ukrainian leader argued that Putin plans to put 300,000 to 500,000 people under arms and that mobilizing that many people is 'not so difficult' for Moscow.
Zelenskyy stated that he sees opposition to mobilization in Russian society, but that even war opponents continue to support Putin. He suggested that the newly mobilized soldiers would not be adequately trained, leading to heavy losses for Russia.
Before his trip to the US, Zelenskyy is expected to stop in the UK on July 27 and meet with new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. The meeting is reported to address the Drone Deal, which envisages Kyiv sharing its combat experience with London and building a large factory based on new technologies in the UK.
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