As Russia's war against Ukraine enters its fourth year, the Kremlin has managed to neutralize Western isolation plans. According to an analysis published in The New York Times, Moscow has been able to sustain the war by building a broad network of partnerships in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.
Researcher Hannah Notte wrote in her article that Russia has adapted to a new global reality despite unprecedented Western sanctions. In this way, the impact of economic and political pressures was reduced, and the conflict in Ukraine could be sustained.
Expansion of influence in Africa and Asia
Citing her book 'Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West,' Notte noted that Moscow compensated for its losses in the European market by strengthening its presence in the Global South. The willingness of many countries to balance between the West and Russia facilitated this process.
While increasing its economic influence in Africa, Russia intensified media campaigns and presented itself as an anti-'neo-colonial' partner. It also used deceptive recruitment programs targeting young African women to work in assembly factories for Iranian-made drones.
Diplomacy and historical ties
Russian diplomacy remained active within the United Nations and BRICS. The Kremlin invested in political, cultural, and sporting events to show that it is still an effective international power despite sanctions.
Notte emphasized that Russia also leveraged its historical legacy in countries like South Africa. The Soviet Union's past support for liberation movements strengthened sympathetic attitudes among broad segments of political elites toward Russia's narrative of the Ukraine war.
Some governments saw rapprochement with Moscow as a means to consolidate their domestic power. In Georgia, the 'Georgian Dream' party adopted anti-Western rhetoric, accusing its opponents of bringing the country into confrontation with Russia; this stance served the Kremlin's goal of weakening the Western democratic model.
Limits and backlashes of Russian influence
However, Russian influence is not limitless. The war has caused backlashes in countries traditionally in Moscow's sphere of influence. In Kazakhstan, fear of a repeat of the Ukraine scenario led to calls for strengthening national identity and reducing dependence on Russian language and culture.
In Armenia, trust in Moscow was shaken because it could not protect its traditional ally when Azerbaijan took control of Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan moved to reduce its dependence on Russia by diversifying its foreign partnerships.
In the Middle East, the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime was a strategic blow for the Kremlin. Moscow lost one of its most important regional allies, signaling a decline in its capacity to protect partners.
Trump's return and strategic resilience
Notte noted that Donald Trump's return to the White House did not bring the gains Moscow hoped for. While the US administration was preoccupied with new crises such as a war with Iran and intervention in Venezuela, the Ukraine war remained unresolved, and a Washington-Moscow rapprochement did not materialize.
Despite Russia's heavy human losses, increasing economic pressures, and the expansion of Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory, Putin believes that the outcome of the war will determine his country's international standing. Therefore, he continues to bet that his Western rivals' patience will run out before his.
Hannah Notte emphasized that Putin's strategy is based on resilience rather than a quick victory. The network of global partners and interests that prevents Russia's complete isolation could offer the Kremlin an opportunity to achieve its goals if international divisions persist and Western support for Ukraine wanes.
