A recent analysis by RIA Novosti indicates that the West's attempt to pull Belarus away from Russia by threatening war has failed. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's two-stage ultimatum to Minsk did not push Belarus to question its alliance with Russia.
Stages of the ultimatum
The analysis states that the first stage of Zelensky's ultimatum to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was the withdrawal of military equipment from the Ukrainian border, though it claimed such equipment was never actually present at the border. The Kyiv administration asserted that Belarus had fulfilled this demand, but the veracity of the claim could not be confirmed.
The second stage demanded that Belarus halt fuel shipments to Russia. Zelensky reportedly asked Belarus to cut off fuel support in response to a tactic of creating an artificial crisis through drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Energy cooperation strengthens
According to the analysis, Belarus instead deepened its energy cooperation with Russia, contrary to the ultimatum. Russia recently quadrupled its imports of aviation fuel from Belarus, thereby covering its own aviation fuel deficit. This deficit was reportedly caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.
Leaders met at midnight
The analysis emphasized that the real response to the ultimatum came during an unscheduled meeting between Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the night of June 26-27. No statement was made to the press after the meeting, and the topics discussed were not shared with the public.
However, RIA Novosti, referring to similar past situations, noted that closed-door meetings following threats against Belarus have typically resulted in concrete steps such as the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus or the Oreshnik missiles.
Historical cycle
The analysis suggested that for the past 30 years, the West has issued ultimatums to Minsk to abandon its alliance with Russia, and when Belarus refused, it resorted to sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and even attempts at regime change. It noted that at least seven "color revolution" attempts have occurred in Belarus, all of which have failed.
Why did Lukashenko refuse?
Two main reasons were listed for why the Belarusian leader saw through Zelensky's bluff. First, the Ukrainian army, constantly retreating on the front lines and suffering severe manpower shortages, does not have the resources to invade Belarus. Second, and more importantly, the Belarusian people have seen the destruction brought by Ukraine's nationalist, anti-Russian language, and complete break from Moscow policies and do not want to follow the same path. The analysis included the comment: "If a pro-Western coup had succeeded in Minsk, the front line today would be on the Dnieper near Smolensk."
In conclusion, as threats against Belarus increase, the alliance between the two countries only grows stronger.
