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YouGov poll finds 48% of German voters expect Merz to leave office by year-end
In a YouGov poll, 48% of German voters said Chancellor Friedrich Merz would no longer be in office at the end of December. The CDU’s losses in state elections are intensifying the internal leadership debate and increasing uncertainty over Europe’s political outlook.
As debate continues in Germany ahead of the state elections over whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz will remain in office, 48% of YouGov poll respondents said they expect Merz not to be chancellor at the end of December. While 31% said Merz would remain in office, 21% were undecided.
The poll was published before Sunday’s elections in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and in Berlin. The findings indicate that Merz’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), could suffer significant losses in both elections.
The CDU’s losses in state elections
The CDU also suffered a heavy defeat in this month’s election in Saxony-Anhalt. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first with 43.8% of the vote, while the CDU received 17.2%.
The result was viewed as a major defeat for the CDU, which governed the state for decades with changing coalition partners. In the latest poll published by ZDF in Berlin, the CDU was measured at around 20%. The party fell behind the 28.2% it received in the 2023 elections.
The Left Party, which leads with 22% support, raises the possibility of a three-party government without the CDU. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU stood at 6% in recent polls, just above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. In ZDF’s latest survey, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) was measured at 37%, while the anti-immigration AfD stood at 36%.
Merz’s leadership is being debated within the party
Although local issues are decisive in regional elections, some observers argue that the CDU’s decline in three state elections this month was exacerbated by Merz’s weak performance in office. These assessments have increased internal pressure on Merz to step down.
Senior CDU officials plan to hold an internal meeting on Monday. CDU lawmakers and members of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the party’s sister organization in Bavaria, are also expected to meet two days later.
A leadership change within the CDU would not mean that parliament would automatically be dissolved or that a national election would be held. If Merz steps down as a result of internal pressure within the party, the Bundestag could elect a new chancellor without a nationwide election being held.
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