The 2017 Korea Crisis: The First Sign of the 'Madman'
In the fall of 2017, former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer complained to then-President Donald Trump that South Korean negotiators were not making concessions. Trump's response was short and clear: 'Tell them the madman in the White House is ready to tear up the deal at any moment.' This incident, reported by Axios, became the cornerstone of Trump's negotiation strategy.
Nixon's 'Madman' Legacy
The 'madman' theory emerged in 1969 during the Vietnam War under President Richard Nixon. When negotiations with North Vietnam in Paris stalled, the Nixon team leaked a message to the Soviet Union that the president was furious and unpredictable, and might resort to the nuclear option. In fact, in October 1969, nuclear-armed B-52 bombers were flown near Soviet airspace as a radar deception. This strategy, recounted in the memoirs of Nixon's Chief of Staff Bob Haldeman, relied on intimidating the adversary through uncertainty.
Trump's Twist: 'The Art of the Deal' Kicks In
Trump, however, blended Nixon's tactic with the real estate trader instincts from his 1987 book 'The Art of the Deal.' In the book, he writes that he 'played to people's fantasies' and that people 'want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.' He views 'truthful hyperbole' as a legitimate marketing tool. In negotiation, he emphasizes that the worst thing is to show eagerness and stresses the power of having leverage the other side can't live without.
Putting NATO on the Table, Threatening Mexico
Trump applied this approach globally during his presidency. In his first term, while demanding more defense spending from NATO allies, he directly threatened to withdraw from the alliance. In 2019, he threatened Mexico with steep tariffs over immigration, forcing it to deploy tens of thousands of troops to the border within days. In both cases, he created chaos and uncertainty to extract concessions.
The Soleimani Decision: The Appeal of the Most Extreme Option
Trump's 'madman' reflex was most clearly seen in the January 2020 decision to kill Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. When the Pentagon presented options in response to the death of an American in Iraq, it had included the most extreme option—targeting Soleimani—on the list to make the others seem more reasonable. But Trump, in a move the generals did not expect, chose exactly that option. According to the New York Times, this was intended to send the message of 'a president unbounded by red lines.'
Controlling the State with 'Schedule F'
After facing resistance from the bureaucracy in his first term, Trump aims to establish full control over the federal government with the 'Schedule F' plan in his second term. This plan, which makes it easier to fire thousands of senior officials, paves the way for him to be even more unpredictable at the negotiating table.
From the Atlantic to the Pacific: China, the New Enemy
For Trump, the real rival is China. In his view, NATO is a waste of resources flowing to European 'freeloaders'; China is a giant factory that takes away the jobs of the American working class. Instead of multilateral alliances against China, he prefers a direct, head-on struggle. With midnight tweets praising the Chinese president and morning tariff hikes that disrupt supply chains, his tactic of 'weaponizing uncertainty' creates an environment that is a minefield for investors.
The Iran War: A Message to Both Shores
Trump's military moves toward Iran also serve a dual purpose. On one hand, with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, he tells Europe, 'Either pay your NATO bill or fend for yourselves,' while on the other, he reminds China and India, which buy oil from Iran, of their energy dependency. He acts like a merchant who starts a fire and then sells extinguishers at three times the price.
