Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Russia is preparing “something big” this year. He made the remarks on September 24 at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
“We are receiving information – we are not revealing the sources, but there are many of them – that Russia is preparing something big this year,” Sikorski said.
“I believe that Putin needs a pretext for mobilization, so they could carry out a false-flag attack and tell the Russian people: ‘We are under attack, and therefore we need to mobilize,’” he added.

Sikorski said Russia would be “crazy” to launch a full-scale invasion of NATO territory and that he expects something less explicit instead. Such actions could be designed to stay below the threshold for triggering Article 5, NATO’s mutual-defense clause, he warned.
He said the Baltic states could be particularly vulnerable given their Russian-speaking minorities. He also noted that Belarusians are very concerned about being drawn into the war.
According to Sikorski, Russia believes it still has two cards to play: mobilization and a harsh winter. Moscow is also counting on the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid, heating systems and major companies, he said.