Debate over the United Kingdom’s constitutional future returned to the forefront after the heads of government of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed an accord. The text emphasized the three nations’ right to determine their own methods and timing when deciding their futures.
Tim Bale, a professor in the Department of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said the initiative aimed to demonstrate the three regional governments’ continued commitment to groups supporting independence and to put pressure on the United Kingdom’s new head of government.
Scotland needs London’s approval for a referendum
Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney described the United Kingdom’s new head of government, Andy Burnham, as “the last prime minister of the United Kingdom.” The Scottish National Party, led by Swinney, continues to press for a new independence vote.
A decision by the Scottish Parliament alone is not sufficient to organize a referendum. Under a 2022 ruling by the United Kingdom Supreme Court, the legislative body authorized to grant the necessary approval is the United Kingdom Parliament in London, which has 650 seats. Around 57 Scottish members of Parliament sit in the chamber.
A recent poll in Scotland put support for remaining in the United Kingdom at 44 percent, while 56 percent supported independence. The figures largely match the result of the 2014 independence referendum.
The loss in gross domestic product following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union could strengthen the arguments of those opposing independence over its economic consequences.
Support for separation is more limited in Wales
Rhun ap Iorwerth, the First Minister of Wales, said Wales should have the powers, resources and fair treatment it needs as a nation, rather than directly responding to the demand for independence.
Ap Iorwerth also pointed to the flexibilities granted to Scotland, which Wales should receive at least to a similar extent. A poll conducted in August found that only one-third of Welsh voters would vote to leave the United Kingdom when undecided voters were excluded.
Northern Ireland seeks a referendum on reunification
Michelle O’Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, argued that the region has the right to hold a referendum on reunification with the Republic of Ireland. O’Neill said they would not accept a prime minister who claimed that this right was no longer valid.
The 1998 Belfast Agreement allows for a border poll if it is determined that there is majority support on both sides of the border for the unification of Ireland. The decision to call a referendum rests not with the First Minister of Northern Ireland but with the United Kingdom government’s secretary of state for Northern Ireland.
A recent poll in the Republic of Ireland measured support for reunification at two-thirds. In Northern Ireland, the proportion sharing the same view was slightly above one-third. The difference appears to largely reflect the sectarian divide between the predominantly Catholic “nationalist” population and the largely Protestant “unionist” population, which defines its identity around Britain.
Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin did not call for a referendum after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed support for a united Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the First Minister’s powers were assessed as no greater than those of the deputy first minister, who supports remaining part of the United Kingdom.
London will focus on families’ concerns rather than constitutional issues
The first aim of the accord signed by the three regional government leaders was to show independence supporters that the leaders remained committed to the cause. The second was to create political pressure on the United Kingdom’s new head of government.
However, the London government is expected to focus on issues important to families rather than new referendums and constitutional debates. The accord could therefore strengthen the pro-independence base, but it is not expected to change the United Kingdom government’s approach in the short term.
