Russia’s grain exports are expected to fall by about 39% in the July-September period this year. Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of ProZerno, presented his forecasts for Russia’s grain production and exports at the Melnitsa-2026 conference in Moscow.
Russia exported 14 million tonnes of grain during the same period last year. Shipments in July-September this year are expected to remain at 8.5 million tonnes.
Port shutdowns along the Azov-Black Sea route affected shipments
The suspension of operations at several major ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, particularly Novorossiysk, was among the reasons for the decline in exports. The situation at the ports also changed the distribution of Russian grain among buyer countries.
Since the start of the agricultural year, Iran has ranked first in Russian grain exports, with a 17.2% share. Egypt followed with 15.4%, while Azerbaijan accounted for 6%.
Iran mainly bought corn and barley from Russia, while wheat shipments to the country remained limited. Türkiye, a traditional buyer of Russian grain, saw its share of exports fall to 2%.
Black Sea scenario for the 2026-2027 agricultural year
Petrichenko said that if traditional maritime exports do not resume in the Azov-Black Sea basin, Russia could ship no more than 39 million tonnes of grain in the 2026-2027 agricultural year.
If shipments through the Black Sea regain momentum from the beginning of next year, exports could reach 45 million tonnes. Russia’s total grain export potential in the current agricultural year stands at 59 million tonnes.