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- October 16, 202612°
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- October 16, 202612°
Russia’s central bank holds interest rate at 14% despite inflation pressures
Russia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 14% a year on September 11, 2026. The bank forecasts inflation of 6–7% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
Russia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 14% a year at its board meeting on September 11, 2026. The decision came as price pressures increased in recent months despite moderate economic growth in the third quarter of 2026.
According to the bank, annualized sustainable price growth rose to 5–6%. A temporary decline in production capacity in some sectors contributed to this increase.
Inflation outlook
In its baseline scenario, the central bank expects annual inflation to reach 6–7% in 2026. Inflation is projected to fall to 4% in 2027 and remain at the target level thereafter.
Seasonally adjusted price growth rose to an annualized 11.6% in July. This indicator averaged 5.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Over the same period, core inflation increased from 4.6% to 7%.
Volatile items such as motor fuel, fruit and vegetables stood out in recent price movements. In its assessment dated September 7, the Bank of Russia calculated annual inflation at 6.3%.
Inflation and credit effects in the interest-rate decision
The bank said that inflation expectations among households, companies and financial-market participants were moving in different directions but remained high. Unemployment remained close to historically low levels, although it had increased somewhat in recent months.
Monetary policy conditions were considered moderately tight. While interest rates in different segments of the financial market moved in different directions, the real tightness of monetary policy eased somewhat when future inflation expectations were taken into account.
Credit activity remained high in recent months, driven particularly by the corporate sector. While the retail loan portfolio grew moderately, households’ propensity to save declined somewhat but remained high.
The next board meeting at which the Bank of Russia will reassess its policy rate is scheduled for October 23, 2026.
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