Atlantic Council: Putin’s only options in Ukraine are total victory or endless war

An Atlantic Council analysis argues Vladimir Putin has only two options in Ukraine — total victory or endless war — and no intention of coexisting with an independent Ukraine.

An analysis by Peter Dickinson published in the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert argues that Vladimir Putin has only two options in Ukraine: total victory or endless war. It says almost everything about Putin’s current stance shows he has no interest in ending the war or coexisting with an independent Ukraine, noting he has repeatedly refused an unconditional ceasefire despite nominal support for a peace deal.

Vladimir Putin (file, February 2026)

Vladimir Putin (file, January 2026)

The piece says Putin’s insistence on addressing the war’s “root causes” in practice means limiting Ukraine’s sovereignty and turning it into a Russian vassal, and that US-led peace efforts focused on about 6,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian-held land in Donetsk misread his ambitions.