Russia’s MC-21 project, expected to halt the contraction of the country’s commercial aviation fleet following Western sanctions, is facing rising costs and limited production capacity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin toured the assembly line at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant in July and inspected MC-21 fuselages. Work was under way on the fuselages of six aircraft at the plant.
Irkutsk Aviation Plant director Andrey Soynov said four MC-21 aircraft would be completed and delivered to Aeroflot by the end of 2026 if certification requirements were completed. The aircraft, developed by the United Aircraft Corporation, is produced at the Irkutsk Aviation Plant.
Sanctions made domestic components necessary
Western sanctions imposed after the attack on Ukraine pushed the manufacturer to use Russian-made components instead of foreign engines, composite wings and other parts. The change caused the MC-21 to gain approximately 6 metric tons in weight.
Because of the weight increase, the aircraft will not be able to fly nonstop between Moscow and Vladivostok as originally planned. During his factory visit, Putin told Rostec chief Sergey Chemezov that the MC-21 needed a longer range. Chemezov said a longer-range model was being developed.
In June, the Russian government increased its cost estimate for the first 18 MC-21 aircraft to be produced with domestic components by approximately two-thirds. The total estimate rose from 58.3 billion rubles to 96.1 billion rubles, while the per-aircraft cost increased from the 3.14–3.29 billion ruble range in 2023 to 5.34 billion rubles.
Production plans intensify capacity debate
Russian officials have announced that dozens of MC-21, Tu-214 and Sukhoi Superjet aircraft will be delivered in the coming years. However, Kirill Zhirikhin, who worked on the aircraft’s capability tests at Russia’s Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute between 2007 and 2022, said the targets were not feasible under current conditions.
Zhirikhin said progress had been made on the MC-21 project but argued that the aircraft remained at least 15 years behind its foreign rivals. In his view, the aircraft could be delivered in limited numbers through transactions between state-controlled companies, but it was not expected to reach mass-production levels.
Zhirikhin said that the transfer of money, industrial capacity and skilled labor to the defense sector following the sanctions had placed pressure on civil aviation. He said that after aviation production had halted for several years, it would not be possible to quickly produce 50 or 100 aircraft a year.
Pressure from foreign aircraft and maintenance
More than 400 foreign-owned aircraft, mostly Boeing and Airbus planes, remained in Russia after the attack on Ukraine. After sanctions terminated leasing agreements, airlines began using existing aircraft as sources of spare parts and obtaining components through channels designed to circumvent the sanctions.
Major airlines established their own maintenance centers. Aeroflot was also authorized to independently service Airbus and Boeing engines. Approximately 20% of Russia’s fleet has remained grounded in recent years, partly because of global problems involving Pratt & Whitney engines.
Open-source data show that reported malfunctions involving commercial and military aircraft increased after the attack, reaching 300 cases in 2024. However, no major accident involving Russia’s largest airlines occurred. In 2023, an Airbus A320 operated by Ural Airlines made an emergency landing in a field near Novosibirsk.
Maintenance practices raise safety concerns
Andrey Menshenin, an independent Russian journalist who previously covered aviation for the St. Petersburg-based Fontanka outlet, said not all incidents in the sector may become public. Menshenin said aircraft could remain grounded because of system or engine failures.
An unnamed pilot working for one of Russia’s major airlines said the sector had overcome its initial difficulties, but passengers and employees were feeling the financial pressure. The pilot said airlines were largely continuing their flights and that Aeroflot continued to receive the parts and software updates it needed.
The pilot rejected reports that Russian flight crews had been forced to switch to paper maps. However, critical aviation data that aircraft must receive every 28 days reaches Russia through Kazakhstan, while some aircraft parts, including engines, are imported through countries such as India and China.
Airlines can rely on Minimum Equipment List rules that allow flights to operate even when some malfunctions have not been fixed. The pilot said one or two minor defects could be deferred at some airlines, while companies such as S7 could have five defects requiring additional procedures before departure.
Menshenin argued that safety standards at Russian airlines were generally similar, but could deteriorate as the country became increasingly isolated. He said this did not necessarily mean accidents would increase, but that pilots could face greater responsibility.
Russian airlines shift focus to domestic routes
The closure of Western airspace after the attack on Ukraine caused Aeroflot and S7 Airlines to lose a significant portion of their international destinations. The two companies rebuilt parts of their networks by redirecting them toward Asia and neighboring countries.
A source familiar with Russia’s aviation market said airlines were focusing on maintaining flights as capacity contracted rather than pursuing ambitious long-term plans. The source said Russian airlines’ share of international flights had remained stable, while foreign carriers accounted for nearly half of Russia’s aviation market.
According to the source, even the addition of the MC-21 to Aeroflot’s fleet might not resolve the sector’s long-term problems. The lower fuel efficiency of domestic aircraft could increase ticket prices, while some airlines could go bankrupt because of aircraft shortages or economic problems.
Russia’s aviation sector is expected to continue contracting and shift further toward domestic routes in the period ahead. The central challenge is described as maintaining connections within the country and transportation with the countries with which Russia continues to maintain relations using the available capacity.
