The Four Seas Initiative, which aims to bring about a fundamental shift in the US energy equation in the Middle East, is seen as a geopolitical move against its rivals in the region. Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen, Director of Pros&Cons Security and Risk Analysis, stated that the initiative's main objective is to reduce the influence of China, Russia and Iran by linking the Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea, Mediterranean and Black Sea.
The Four Seas Initiative emerged as an expanded version of the Three Seas Initiative, announced by Donald Trump in 2017, which aimed to break Russia's influence in Europe along the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea axis. The name was first used on March 26, 2026, at the Atlantic Council's US-Syria Energy Symposium in Washington by Tom Barrack, then US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Representative for Syria.
US energy corridor plan
According to Erkmen, the project is based on the assumption that the existing energy order in the Middle East runs counter to US interests. China's opening to Europe through its Belt and Road Project and instability in oil prices are seen as risks for Washington. The initiative seeks to reorder energy transmission lines and trade routes in the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia in favor of the US.
The plan foresees four main corridors:
- Gulf-Mediterranean Corridor: Involves the transfer of oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE via Jordan to Syria's Tartus Port. This line aims to create an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
- Iraq-Syria Corridor: Envisages the reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline, closed in 1979, with a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day. The corridor aims to reduce Iraq's dependence on the Basra terminal.
- Caspian-Mediterranean Corridor: Plans to add a Syria link to the existing route that transports Azerbaijani and Turkmen natural gas to Europe via Turkey through TANAP.
- Modernization of the Arab Gas Pipeline: Focuses on transporting Egyptian natural gas to Europe via Jordan, Syria and Turkey.
Iraq-Syria line is the first step
Erkmen said the most viable leg of the project at the moment is the Iraq-Syria Corridor. He noted that the US is applying diplomatic pressure to prevent a government close to Iran from taking office in Iraq, and that the new Iraqi government supports Washington's initiatives in the oil sector.
Erkmen said companies such as Chevron, Hunt Oil, HKN, ConocoPhillips and Qatar Energy, which were listed as financiers in the June project report, have made significant gains in Iraq in the last two months, and that the same firms have signed agreements to operate natural gas and oil fields in Syria and are playing a decisive role in the construction of the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline. The start of rehabilitation work on the M4 highway running from Iraq to Syria is also seen as part of the energy cooperation.
Turkey's critical role and Russian influence
Erkmen pointed out that after Syria, the second key country in the Four Seas Initiative is Turkey. He stated that the project aims not only to reduce Iran's influence in the Persian Gulf and Iraq but also to prevent China's Belt and Road Project from reaching Europe. Turkey is positioned at the center of international transportation lines coming from the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Erkmen said the Iraq-Turkey Development Road could be expanded to include northeastern Syria, making Turkey a critical intersection point for bringing natural gas lines to Europe in addition to road transport. These routes are expected to move Europe away from dependence on Russian natural gas.
Chances of success seen as low
Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen described the likelihood of the project being fully implemented as "virtually nil". However, he said the effects already being felt on Iraq and Syria show that the initiative should be taken seriously. Reminding that no state is willing to make a financial contribution to the project, that the main market for Gulf countries is Asia, and that Saudi Arabia has alternative refineries on the Red Sea, Erkmen stated that for these reasons the four corridors are not being activated simultaneously, with priority given to the Iraq-Syria leg.
The views in this assessment, penned by Prof. Dr. Serhat Erkmen for AA Analysis, belong to the author.
