Türkiye's central bank raises inflation forecasts to 29.5% for 2026, 21% for 2027

Türkiye's Central Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 from 28% to 29.5%, and for 2027 from 15% to 21%. Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan attributed the revision to supply shocks caused by geopolitics and pledged to maintain tight monetary policy.

Türkiye's Central Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 from 28% to 29.5%, Governor Fatih Karahan said while presenting the year's final inflation report in Istanbul. The forecast for the end of 2027 was raised from 15% to 21%, while the forecast for 2028 increased from 9% to 13.5%. The interim targets for 2027 and 2028 were revised to the same levels, while the medium-term target of 5% was maintained.

Karahan said that the improvement in the underlying inflation trend was becoming more evident, but supply shocks caused by geopolitical events were limiting the decline. “The continuation of this situation supports upside risks to inflation and requires a cautious stance,” he said, pledging to maintain tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved.

The Central Bank also revised its baseline assumptions. The average oil price for 2026 is now expected to be $97.2 per barrel, up from $87.8, and $86.7 in 2027, up from $76.4. The food inflation forecast for the end of 2026 was raised from 28.5% to 31.3%, and for the end of 2027 from 19% to 24%.

Инфляция в сфере аренды жилья в Турции, по данным ЦБ Турции

Annual inflation in Türkiye stood at 29.8% in October. Karahan warned that, according to leading indicators, vegetable prices continued to rise in November, meaning the decline in annual inflation could stall this month. The rental market is also important for foreigners living in Türkiye: according to the Central Bank, the slowdown in rent increases is becoming increasingly evident.