The end of the Schengen and Dublin agreements could mean both economic losses for Switzerland and weaker security cooperation in Europe. A report published by Switzerland’s Federal Council on Friday said an exit scenario could cost the country billions of francs.
According to the report’s estimate, Switzerland’s gross domestic product could be up to 3.9% lower in 2035 without the agreements. The annual loss of income per person could reach 1,300 Swiss francs, which could exceed $1,500.
Border crossings and pressure on the labor force
If Switzerland leaves the agreements, its borders with neighboring countries will become external borders of the Schengen area. In that case, border controls would have to be expanded significantly.
The number of cross-border workers commuting between Switzerland and neighboring countries could fall by up to 60%. The development is expected to particularly affect the food service and care sectors, while commuters could lose a total of 422,000 hours every working day because of border traffic.
Tourism and asylum costs could rise
The Federal Council’s report estimated that annual losses in the tourism sector could range from 320 million to 810 million Swiss francs. It said additional asylum-related costs could reach 824 million francs.
The exit could increase the likelihood of up to 170,000 people moving to Switzerland.
Risk to access to security databases
According to the report, leaving the agreements would cause Switzerland to lose access to key European security databases and cooperation mechanisms. Swiss authorities recorded approximately 40,000 matches linked to Switzerland in the Schengen Information System in 2025, the report said.
The Federal Council said additional spending on operating national databases, reintroducing border controls and maintaining domestic security would exceed the savings achieved by ending the agreements. The report argued that this additional spending would not fully compensate for the loss of security capacity.
