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Poland suggests Russia could stage a false-flag attack to justify mobilization
Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said they had received information through several confidential channels that Russia was preparing a major move this year. Sikorski suggested Moscow could stage a false-flag attack to justify a new mobilization and create a risk of escalation involving Belarus and the Baltic states.
Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said at an event in New York that they had received information through several confidential channels that Russia was preparing a major move this year.
According to Sikorski, Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a pretext to declare a new mobilization across the country. Sikorski suggested that Moscow could stage a false-flag operation designed to create the impression that Russia had been attacked and use it as justification for mobilization.
Risk of escalation involving Belarus and the Baltic states
Assessing possible escalation scenarios involving Russia, Sikorski said he was concerned that Belarus could be drawn into the war. He added that the Baltic states, where Russian minorities live, could also face a risk of escalation originating from Russia.
Sikorski said NATO should be ready to deter a possible attack, describing a full-scale Russian attack on a NATO member state as madness. He argued, however, that Moscow could turn to more ambiguous methods that might make it harder to invoke NATO's Article 5, which provides for collective defense.
Moscow's war capacity
Sikorski said the Russian economy was under pressure, but argued that Moscow could continue the war for another one or two years unless Ukraine managed to disable more than half of Russia's oil-refining capacity.
Sikorski said Russia still had options available, including mobilization, harsh winter conditions, and attacks targeting Ukraine's energy grid, heating systems and major businesses. He said these attacks were harming the Ukrainian economy.
Sikorski said Ukraine also had options available, referring to remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump in making this assessment.
What is a false-flag operation?
A false-flag operation involves a state carrying out an attack using the identity or methods of another actor and then using the incident to create a political or military justification.
One of the best-known examples in recent history occurred before Nazi Germany's attack on Poland in 1939. German agents disguised as Poles attacked a German radio station near the border, and the German government portrayed the incident as an act by Polish saboteurs and used it as a justification for the invasion.
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