Military tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate hike signals caused fluctuations in global markets. The rise in geopolitical risks led to sharp sell-offs, particularly in European stock markets.
After U.S. President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets. This move weakened the prospect of peace in the Middle East and heightened unease in the markets.
As tensions escalated, the price of Brent crude hit $80 per barrel for the first time since June 22. The number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz also fell sharply, dropping from 14 to 7.
The Fed's minutes released yesterday showed that most officials indicated that interest rate hikes could be implemented if inflation remained high due to factors such as artificial intelligence demand or the war in the Middle East. This signal further deepened concerns in the markets.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for this year from 3.1% to 3% in its World Economic Outlook report. The report noted that Turkey's economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
Rising oil prices fueling inflation concerns and expectations of a hawkish stance from central banks weighed on the price of gold. Gold fell for a third consecutive trading day, finding buyers at $4,067 per ounce.
European stock markets recorded sharp declines due to geopolitical risks and Trump's trade remarks targeting Spain. The UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.66%, Germany's DAX 40 dropped 2.23%, France's CAC 40 lost 2.18%, and Italy's FTSE MIB 30 declined 1.22%.
U.S. stock markets saw a mixed performance. In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Dow Jones dropped 1.09%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 4.58%.
Asian stock markets were mostly lower, but a recovery in the semiconductor sector and news that OpenAI launched new models supported technology shares. Inflation in China coming in below expectations created pressure. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.4%, while the Kospi fell 0.73%, the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.15%, and the Hang Seng declined 0.81%.
On Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index fell 2.12% to 14,189.96 points. The dollar/lira closed at 46.8450 and is trading at 46.8710 in the new session.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, speaking after the 36th NATO Heads of State and Government Summit hosted by Turkey, said, "All allies participated in the summit at the leader level. We see this as a new proof of the trust in Turkey and the prestige of our diplomacy."
Analysts stated that 14,100 and 14,000 points are support levels for the BIST 100 index, while 14,250 and 14,300 points are resistance levels.
Today, markets will focus on the following data:
- Japan June Machinery Orders
- Germany May Trade Balance
- Turkey weekly monetary and banking statistics
- U.S. weekly jobless claims
- U.S. June existing home sales
