Brent crude oil prices fell below $71 per barrel for the third consecutive day on Thursday, pressured by progress in negotiations between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a recovery in oil shipments from the Gulf.
International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $70.76, down about 1.13 percent, at 17:28 Istanbul time. This level indicated that prices had returned to pre-war levels.
The decline came after a Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson announced on Wednesday that the parties had made 'positive progress' in talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in Doha. On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that 'the process of denuclearizing Iran is going well.'
However, on Thursday, a threatening statement from Iran's joint military command raised tensions again. The command announced that ships deviating from designated routes in the Strait of Hormuz would face an 'immediate and compulsory response.' The statement, broadcast on Iranian state television, said: 'If the navigational protocols of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz are not followed, if a designated route is deviated from, or if these rules are ignored, an immediate and compulsory response will be given by the armed forces in a manner that endangers the violator vessels.' It was not immediately clear what prompted the threat.
The next round of negotiations between the US and Iran is expected to take place after the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which begins on Saturday.
Meanwhile, oil exports from Gulf countries continued to recover in recent days. Saudi Arabia increased its shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as conditions gradually improved. According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, four supertankers carrying around 8 million barrels of crude oil departed from the kingdom's main export terminal at Ras Tanura on Thursday and headed into the Arabian Sea. That was the highest number of supertankers transiting the strait in a single day since the memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also accelerated its exports. According to Kpler ship tracking data, the country's oil exports in June exceeded 3.9 million barrels per day. The UAE, which left OPEC in May, reached its highest export rate since 2017.
According to a U.S. official who spoke to Bloomberg, the total oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has surpassed 10 million barrels per day. While this marks a significant recovery from the lows seen during the conflict, it remains well below the pre-war average of 18-19 million barrels per day that transited the waterway.
After the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, Tehran retaliated against U.S. assets in the region, Israel, and neighboring Gulf states, including critical energy infrastructure. Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards restricted commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, which in peacetime carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, was almost completely closed when the war began. Amid supply fears, oil prices surged to as high as $115 per barrel in early May.
Following the signing of a 14-point memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US on June 17 to permanently end the war, shipments through the strait gradually recovered. However, despite the ceasefire, sporadic attacks continue to disrupt maritime traffic. The parties are in the midst of a 60-day intensive negotiation process aimed at fully reopening the strait, halting hostilities, and limiting Tehran's nuclear program.
