The rise of the AfD and declining support for the government in Germany are weakening Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s position within the CDU. The possibility of replacing Merz with another figure is being debated within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the issue could come to the fore after the state elections in the autumn.
Support for Merz falls to 13 percent
An ARD poll found that 13 percent of respondents in Germany were satisfied with Merz’s leadership. This was the lowest level of support recorded for a sitting German chancellor in the poll’s nearly 30-year history.
Dissatisfaction with Merz was linked to concerns about the German economy, as well as doubts about planned reforms to the pension and healthcare systems. Among supporters of the CDU and its coalition partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), 46 percent supported a change at the head of government, while 48 percent opposed the idea.
AfD heads into state elections from a stronger position
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the country’s most popular party, with 28 percent support. Merz’s CDU ranks second with approximately 21 percent.
Elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6 and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on Sept. 20 point to a critical period for Merz’s chancellorship. Polls show that the AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt and prevail in the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Criticism intensifies within the CDU
Changes Merz has made to the cabinet, which have been described as proceeding irregularly, have intensified criticism of his loss of authority within the CDU. Interviews Der Spiegel conducted with figures in CDU leadership circles and people close to the chancellor showed that confidence in Merz within the party had weakened.
Assessments published by the magazine argued that Merz’s situation was deteriorating much faster than during the period when CDU Chancellor Ludwig Erhard was removed from office in 1966. People who spoke to Der Spiegel said that Merz’s authority had eroded within a few days and that expectations within the party that he would still be in office at the end of the year were low.
Resignation scenario set for Sept. 21
An unnamed senior CDU official claimed that Merz might have to leave office by Sept. 21 at the latest. The official argued that Merz was unable to communicate with the party, saying, “This situation is over.”
According to the same official, Merz could resign or be forced to step down after the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. CDU leaders, however, are avoiding taking a clear public position on these scenarios.
Wüst emerges as a possible successor
Hendrik Wüst, the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia, is emerging as one of the possible figures who could replace Merz. Wüst is expected to seek re-election in the spring. However, taking on the chancellorship could be difficult at a time when Germany’s political and economic problems are intensifying.
Wüst said on a podcast produced by the Funke Media Group that the chancellorship was not an option for him at present. Nevertheless, he did not completely rule out the possibility of becoming a candidate for chancellor in the future, saying that one should “never” say never while governing a major state.
Constitutional routes to changing the chancellor
A sitting chancellor can be replaced through resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence in the Federal Parliament. Despite Merz’s low polling results, neither scenario is considered likely at this stage.
