Representatives of European intelligence services have warned about possible further Russian actions targeting NATO countries. The Guardian reports that European security officials believe Moscow could take more decisive steps to test the North Atlantic Alliance’s response and unity.
“Not in years, but in months”
Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said Russia could attempt to test NATO not in the distant future but in the coming months.
He said possible scenarios could include a limited violation of the territory of a NATO member, a false-flag operation, increased drone activity or large-scale information operations.
Possible test of NATO’s Article 5 at the center of attention
The warnings came against the backdrop of remarks by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Citing intelligence assessments, Tusk said NATO territory could face drone or missile incidents in the coming months.
He said the aim of such actions could be to test the alliance’s response and the principle of collective defense enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
European intelligence services focus on sabotage
Another source of concern for European intelligence services is the sabotage and hybrid operations linked to Russia.
Security officials are paying particular attention to railway infrastructure, defense-industry facilities and other sites important to supporting Ukraine.
Officials from the Czech Republic, Sweden and Latvia believe such activity in Europe could intensify in the coming months.
Latvia offers a more cautious assessment
At the same time, European intelligence services differ in their assessments of the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia’s State Security Service, said there were signs that Russia was preparing for more decisive actions in Europe, but no signs of preparations for an imminent direct, full-scale military attack.
Officials from the Baltic states also warn that excessive fearmongering could serve Russian influence operations.
This is not a forecast of full-scale war
The assessments by European intelligence services do not mean that Russia will necessarily launch a full-scale war against NATO in the coming months. The main focus is on a limited action that could be intended to test the alliance’s response.
The scenarios under consideration include drone and missile incidents, sabotage, information operations and limited border violations.
Europe closely monitors Russia’s next moves
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, European intelligence services are paying increased attention to Russian activity targeting NATO countries. Recent statements show that European security services view the coming months as a period requiring particularly close monitoring.
