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EBRD expects Türkiye to grow 3% in 2026 as Middle East war continues
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027. The bank lowered its 2026 forecast for Türkiye from 3.5% in June and pointed to the effects of the war in the Middle East among regional risks.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
In its regional economic outlook report, the bank lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from the 3.5% announced in June to 3%. The EBRD also put the average growth expectations for the countries where it operates at 2.5% for 2026 and 4% for 2027.
Compared with its assessment in June, the forecasts for the region were lowered by 0.6 percentage points for 2026 and 0.4 percentage points for 2027.
Risks to Türkiye’s outlook
According to the report, high inflation weakening domestic demand and tight financial conditions contributed to the downward revision to the outlook for Türkiye’s economy.
The effects of the ongoing war in the Middle East and pressure on the competitiveness of exports caused by costs were also identified as risks to the economic outlook.
Conditions that could support growth
The EBRD assessed that lasting peace in the Middle East, stronger external demand and continued monetary policy discipline could boost investment. According to the bank, these conditions could contribute to faster economic growth.
The EBRD’s investment volume in Türkiye exceeds €25 billion, with most of the investments directed to the private sector.
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