According to an assessment by Erhan Akkaş, an associate professor at Ankara Social Sciences University’s Department of Economics, Tehran is working to establish an alternative trade route that would provide access to the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia and then onward to Europe. Rather than representing an option capable of changing Türkiye’s logistical position in the short term, the initiative is viewed as Iran’s effort to diversify its transport networks in different directions.
The Armenian leg of the corridor is advancing
The North–South Road Corridor, planned to run north from the Iranian border through Armenia, aims to connect to the Black Sea via Georgia and expand Iran’s access to different trade routes.
Work is continuing on the 32-kilometer Kajaran–Agarak section in the southern part of the route, including two tunnels and 15 bridges. Physical progress on the section had exceeded 40% as of February 2026, and Armenian authorities expect it to be completed in 2027.
An initiative to build a second bridge over the Aras River between Iran and Armenia also returned to the agenda in August 2026. The connection is expected to strengthen road transport between the two countries.
The lack of a railway limits capacity
Iran’s planned route to the Black Sea faces infrastructure challenges that must be overcome before it can compete on the same scale as existing transport networks. The absence of a direct railway connection between Iran and Armenia, along with the heavy reliance on road transport, is among the main factors limiting capacity and transport speed.
The physical conditions and transport capacity of some road sections in Armenia also need to be improved. Establishing a railway connection and upgrading the road infrastructure are considered key to enabling the route to operate more quickly and at higher capacity.
War and transit points are raising the profile of alternative routes
Following the Russia–Ukraine War, the security and continuity of transport networks across Eurasia became more important. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the dependence of trade and energy flows on specific transit points. This situation has strengthened Iran’s search for connections extending in different directions.
For this reason, the effort to reach the Black Sea through Armenia is not being viewed solely through the lens of competition with Türkiye. The route is considered part of Iran’s search for an alternative to its existing connections and for greater diversification of its trade routes.
Security emphasis in the TRIPP debate
On TRIPP, which Trump also calls the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, Iran emphasizes Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tehran also expresses concern that the project should not be used for security purposes against Iran.
Armenia argues that TRIPP could provide economic opportunities for Iran. This difference between the parties’ approaches shows that Tehran is assessing new transport connections not only for their economic returns but also for their security implications.
A difference in scale from the Development Road
The Development Road Project, planned to connect the Persian Gulf with Europe, covers an approximately 1,200-kilometer road and railway network that will begin at the Grand Faw Port and reach the Turkish border via Iraq. An investment of approximately $17 billion is envisaged for the project.
While the Development Road relies on integrated road and railway infrastructure, Iran’s Black Sea connection includes road transport through Armenia and Georgia as well as maritime transport in the Black Sea. The planned design of the Persian Gulf–Black Sea Corridor as a multimodal structure linking connections in Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Europe is one of the main differences between the two initiatives.
These differences make it difficult for Iran’s Black Sea connection to compete with the Development Road on the same scale in terms of cost, speed and transport capacity in the short term. Nevertheless, the route stands out as a strategic option that could expand Iran’s access to different trade directions.
Competition is between networks rather than a single corridor
Iran’s search for access to the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia has not become an alternative on a scale capable of changing Türkiye’s existing logistical position in the short term. Regional transport competition is expected to take shape less through the capacity of individual corridors than through how different connections are linked to one another.
In this context, the development points less to a direct threat to Türkiye than to the need to diversify logistical capacity and international connections. An integrated logistics network linking railways, ports, border crossings and different international corridors is expected to help Türkiye maintain its advantage.
