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Anxiety rises in Russia despite Kremlin denials of mobilization
Following Russia’s September 18–20 parliamentary elections, anti-war activists and lawyers said concerns about a possible new mobilization had intensified. The Kremlin denied such claims 18 times over the past three months, while military analyst Dmitri Kuznets said the army was recruiting about 30,000 people a month and did not need an urgent mobilization.
Following the completion of Russia’s parliamentary elections, fears that a new mobilization could be declared to sustain the war in Ukraine grew again. Anti-war activists and lawyers said the concern had intensified after the ruling United Russia party won a record majority.
The Kremlin denied claims that preparations were underway for a new mobilization 18 times over the past three months. Activists, however, argued that if a new call-up were announced, it could be implemented more quickly than the 2022 mobilization and that evading military service could become more difficult.
Fear left by the 2022 mobilization
In September 2022, Russia called up 300,000 reservists in its first mobilization since World War II. Tens of thousands of people left the country after the decision, and protests were held in numerous cities.
According to an independent tally, at least 20,468 of the troops mobilized at the time had died by this month. Activists said the losses from the previous mobilization had deepened fears of a new call-up in some Russian regions.
According to data compiled by activists in Tyva, a southern Siberian republic on the Mongolian border, more than 2,100 men and women had died. In the region, which has a population of fewer than 350,000 and a majority of Indigenous peoples, men were taken from their workplaces, streets and homes and sent to the front in 2022.
Sholbaana Kuular of New Tuva, an anti-war and Indigenous rights movement in exile, said the effects of the first mobilization had not yet ended in the region. Kuular said volunteers connected people seeking to avoid military service with military lawyers and translated information about ways to evade conscription into Tuvan, which is widely spoken in the region.
Allegations of pressure over contract service
Following the public backlash in 2022, the Kremlin placed greater emphasis on contract service to recruit soldiers. Soldiers were reportedly offered up to 5.5 million rubles, about $70,000, in exchange for one year of service.
Lawyers said that as long as the 2022 mobilization decree remained in force, the service obligations of contract soldiers and mobilized personnel would continue until the war ended or they were released by the authorities.
Activists documented security forces and military enlistment office officials detaining men during street operations and forcing them to sign contracts in at least 17 regions. Some people were allegedly threatened with drugs being planted on them.
Ivan Chuvilaev, a spokesperson for the Idite Lesom group, which helps Russian men seeking to avoid military service, said pressure on potential recruits and conscripts had increased markedly in recent months. Chuvilaev said men were being told that if they signed contracts before mobilization began, they would have more choice over their terms of service, whereas that option would not be available after mobilization started.
Electronic summons system makes it harder to leave
In 2024, Russia established an electronic military registration system containing information on citizens liable for military service. The system allows electronic summonses to be sent and prevents people who have been called up from leaving the country.
An electronic summons is considered served seven days after it is uploaded to the system, regardless of whether the individual has viewed it. Russian citizens subject to compulsory military service may not leave the country from the date the summons is considered served.
New Tuva volunteers said covert mobilization in the region had not stopped for even a single day and that they were therefore continuing their work without interruption. Field activists said men who could afford to leave the country had gone abroad during the summer, while those unable to leave had moved to nearby regions.
Election results seen as a sign of regional pressure
Political commentator Ekaterina Shulman said the election results could offer clues about which regions might face the heaviest recruitment pressure in the event of a new mobilization. According to Shulman, regions where United Russia received a high vote share could be viewed as places with an effective local administration and a compliant population, making them easier targets for recruitment.
Sargylana Kondakova, co-founder of the Free Yakutia Foundation, an anti-war and Indigenous rights organization in the Sakha Republic, argued that a new mobilization would not resemble the 2022 operation. Kondakova said many people were asking which documents they needed to prepare before leaving the country because of the electronic summonses, while those unable to leave were preparing to hide locally.
Estimates of the number of people who have left Russia since February 2022 range from 500,000 to 1.3 million. By contrast, it is difficult to measure how many more people are considering leaving the country this year.
Kondakova said she did not expect the mass street protests of 2022 to recur. However, she said people in the region had not accepted their fate and would continue resisting through quieter means.
Analyst does not expect an urgent mobilization
Military analyst Dmitri Kuznets said Russia was recruiting about 30,000 people a month. According to Kuznets, that number was sufficient to replace soldiers killed, seriously wounded, captured or missing in the war.
Kuznets said the rate of recruitment had not changed since July and that Russia had no need for an urgent mobilization. The analyst said the Kremlin’s recruitment capacity appeared sufficient for now, while noting that it remained unclear how realistically Russian President Vladimir Putin was assessing the situation.
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