U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, considered one of the likely Republican candidates in the 2028 presidential election, identified four demands on which the return of Trump supporters who switched to the Democrats depends: ending the war, addressing the cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and changing relations with Israel. He cited these demands as the reason for the Republican Party's defeat in the November 3 midterm elections, after which the Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress.
In an extended statement on November 4, Vance stressed that turnout was not the issue. “Our voters showed up,” he wrote, citing Florida, where the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democratic, only a couple of points worse than in 2024. The problem, he said, was that many supporters of Trump and Vance in 2024 supported the Democrats this time. A pollster whom the vice president called “one of the smartest people in politics” had predicted the day before that Republicans would lose the nationwide congressional vote by 13 points and asked voters who had turned away what could bring them back. The four responses covered nearly all the replies.

The Israel issue and a “realist” in the White House
The point concerning Israel deserves particular attention. Vance did not specify what change voters want, but he himself calls his foreign policy “realist” and has repeatedly expressed skepticism toward the U.S.-Israel alliance, JNS notes. In July, on Joe Rogan's podcast, he said: “Israel is an ally, like France or the United Kingdom,” adding that Washington “will have disagreements with them.”
Several days before the election, Trump announced that by the end of the year the United States would end its approximately $4 billion annual aid to Israel under an agreement with Benjamin Netanyahu: “They don't mind. They don't need us.” Meanwhile, Israel's critics also won Democratic seats in Congress, including Abdul El-Sayed, who was elected senator from Michigan.
“We lost because of the war”
Vance stated his main conclusion without qualification: “We lost because of the war. The president himself said so last night.” To those who consider the war with Iran justified, he proposed that they honestly prove that “losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it.”

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump acknowledged that “Iran was part of this,” but added: “I did the right thing. I would do it again.” He also said that he was not on the ballot and that otherwise Republicans “would have won by a landslide.” Donald Trump Jr., by contrast, backed Vance: “Every word here is 100%.”
Warning about amnesty
Vance warned that there would be “a lot of gaslighting” in the coming months, with establishment politicians claiming that amnesty for illegal immigrants was the way forward for the party. “Anyone promoting amnesty is lying to you,” he said, allowing only for a change in the approach to enforcement, such as focusing on companies that hire illegal immigrants.
The scale of the defeat is confirmed by the results: control of both chambers changed hands in a midterm election only for the fourth time since World War II, after 1946, 1994 and 2006. According to AP VoteCast, about two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with the country's direction, while six in ten blame Trump's policies, including trade wars, for rising prices. To dissatisfied supporters repeating “we told you so,” Vance replied: “You were right; you warned us.”
Photo: White House / Wikimedia Commons. Screenshot: X @JDVance