As diplomatic activity intensifies in the Ukraine-Russia war, the conditions needed to make a comprehensive peace agreement possible have yet to emerge. Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, said the parties' expectations about the course of the war remain far apart.
Skrypchenko's analysis said that the visits by U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv after CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit signaled Washington's effort to revive negotiations. However, the visits have not yet produced any concrete results.
Pressure on the battlefield and economic calculations
According to the analysis, Russia's pressure on the battlefield has not resulted in a victory that would allow Moscow to impose its own terms. Ukraine also lacks the advantage needed to retake the occupied territories in the short term. As a result, the decisive factor is becoming not only the military balance but also the parties' ability to weaken each other's economic foundations.
Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil sector were assessed as part of an effort to persuade Moscow that mutual restrictions would be more beneficial in the face of the war's costs. Kyiv could view options such as protecting maritime transport and grain infrastructure in the Black Sea, ending attacks on energy facilities and mutually halting long-range strikes favorably.
Russia has tied meaningful steps toward a ceasefire to the condition that Ukraine withdraw from the Donbas areas under its control. Skrypchenko wrote that Kyiv could not accept this demand and that Moscow believed time was moving in its favor.
The analysis said Russia was taking into account Ukraine's budget problems, uncertainty over future European funding and upcoming elections in Europe. Moscow reportedly considers the losses in the oil sector manageable and believes that the destruction caused by winter and financial constraints will force Ukraine to back down.
Prospect of a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea
Ukraine is preparing for attacks on its gas infrastructure as well as its electricity grid. Air defense systems and reliable financing are important to Kyiv's defense capacity.
Skrypchenko said visits by U.S. negotiators had brought no progress and that Moscow had indicated talks could continue after parliamentary elections in September. Kyiv and Washington, meanwhile, believe negotiations could be delayed after the elections by putting forward new reasons.
U.S. efforts to offer economic incentives in exchange for de-escalation have failed to resolve the contradiction between Moscow's desire to continue the war and its interest in economic gains.
A planned meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump during the United Nations General Assembly could provide an opportunity to discuss the possibility of a limited ceasefire. Draft resolutions calling for an end to attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea are circulating within the United Nations.
A ceasefire in the Black Sea could reduce risks to global food supplies and demonstrate the practical role of the United Nations. Skrypchenko argued that Washington and European Union countries should use sanctions, incentives or a combination of the two to persuade Moscow that another winter would not bring a victory on the battlefield that it had failed to achieve.
