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- October 16, 202612°
- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.42+0.06%
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- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,293-1.02%
- October 16, 202612°
Russia could restore 53 million tonnes of Black Sea grain capacity if truce holds
If reciprocal attacks with Ukraine end, Russia could quickly restore up to 80% of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Three of the region’s nine major terminals are heavily damaged, and repairs could take months.
Restarting grain shipments through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov depends on an end to reciprocal attacks between Russia and Ukraine and the establishment of a truce. In that event, up to 80% of the region’s terminal capacity could be brought back into use quickly.
An analysis by Reuters based on industry data found that three of the region’s nine major terminals had suffered heavy damage. These facilities account for about 20% of the grain export infrastructure, and repairs could take months.
Diplomatic efforts to restore grain trade
Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is leading an international initiative involving grain-importing countries to restart Black Sea grain trade, which halted after attacks on ports and vessels.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on September 25, 2026, that India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries had also joined the diplomatic effort. The Kremlin acknowledged the diplomatic contacts and said Russia had used alternative export routes during this period.
Terminals in Novorossiysk and Taman
The analysis examined the condition of Russia’s nine major grain terminals in the region, as well as smaller facilities around the Sea of Azov and the Don River delta. Before the attacks, this route handled up to 70% of Russia’s grain exports.
NKHP, one of Russia’s three major grain terminals, was heavily damaged in an attack on August 12 at the Port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Repairs to the facility, which has an annual capacity of 7.1 million tonnes, could take up to six months.
Damage to the KSK and NZT terminals in Novorossiysk was limited, and both facilities were ready to resume operations. NKHP’s operator said repairs could take up to four months.
ZTKT at the Port of Taman on the Black Sea coast and the Taganrog terminal on the Sea of Azov were also damaged and halted operations. The full extent of the damage remains unclear, while the two facilities have a combined annual capacity of 6.7 million tonnes.
ZTKT, which has an annual capacity of 5.5 million tonnes, was unable to load grain after the attack on July 30. It remains unclear when operations at the terminal will resume.
53 million tonnes of capacity unavailable
The analysis found that about 53 million tonnes of the region’s total grain terminal capacity of approximately 67 million tonnes was unavailable because of security risks. The terminals could resume operations once the attacks end.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Disruptions to shipments have pushed up global grain prices and revived concerns about food security linked to the war in Ukraine.
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