As the Ukraine war enters a mutual attrition phase, Russia is suffering heavy human losses in exchange for limited territorial gains. The daily number of dead and wounded is approaching a thousand, and the influx of new troops is reportedly unable to keep pace with these losses.
War of attrition and military deadlock
In an analysis by David Blair published in The Telegraph, this picture is pushing the Kremlin to seek options beyond the conventional battlefield. According to the analysis, Russia may turn to a strategy called "horizontal escalation" aimed at dividing NATO and creating a rift between the US and Europe.
Some circles within the Russian military leadership may propose targeting the European support network described as Ukraine's "rear area," which provides financing and weapons to Kyiv. Although Russia is already employing hybrid warfare methods in Europe including sabotage, arson, electronic jamming, and indirect attacks, it has failed to halt Western support and in some cases has even led to an increase in that support.
Horizontal escalation scenario
The analysis notes that the relative decline in US support under the Donald Trump administration has placed a greater burden on Europe, which could encourage Putin to move from indirect warfare to limited military strikes against NATO countries. The goal is defined as testing the alliance's resilience and fueling US-Europe divergence.
Poland is identified as the most likely target, with scenarios including drone strikes on infrastructure, limited operations, or small-scale ground incursions from Belarus or Kaliningrad. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki have relayed warnings from American officials that Russia could strike the country's critical infrastructure or conduct limited ground operations.
Risks of escalation
However, the analysis also underscores that these scenarios carry major risks. A direct attack on a NATO member could trigger a swift and decisive response, potentially bypassing the alliance's traditional consultation mechanisms. Such an escalation could backfire, strengthening NATO unity and increasing military support for Ukraine.
The article states that Putin is currently sticking to the option of seeking victory within Ukraine, but if the deadlock and attrition persist, the risk of the war spilling beyond its current borders remains alive. The possibility of a wider conflict with NATO is assessed as not certain or imminent, but a probability that cannot be ignored.
