Reuters news agency reported, based on data from Kepler, that oil exports from Gulf countries topped 10 million barrels per day in June, an increase of more than 3 million barrels per day from the previous month, after the US and Israel's war on Iran halted.
The end of the war accelerated tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, enabling millions of barrels of crude oil to reach global markets. However, despite this rebound in exports, shipment levels remain about 40 percent below pre-war levels.
Exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran rise
Kepler data showed that combined crude oil and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million barrels per day from May to 10.07 million barrels per day.
PVM analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters, "Once the market digests the oil still sitting on tankers and in storage, a sustainable recovery in crude prices is likely."
Shipments resume through Strait of Hormuz
Commerzbank analysts noted that oil prices came under pressure as investor hopes grew that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen following talks between the US and Iran.
The Financial Times reported that Citibank forecasts Brent crude oil prices could fall to as low as $60 per barrel by year-end. Citi analysts stressed that despite occasional flare-ups, both the US and Iran have strong reasons to adhere to the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June.
The analysts said, "We expect the memorandum of understanding to hold; not because trust suddenly emerged between the two sides, but because both have weak incentives to break the deal."
Brent crude plunges from peak
During the US and Israel's war on Iran, Brent crude peaked at $126 per barrel on April 30. On Friday, Brent futures were down just 4 cents, or 0.06%, at $71.76 by 11:32 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.29%, to $68.49.
Reuters reported that some shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have resumed under the agreement between Iran and the US. However, uncertainty remains high after the two countries exchanged strikes following an Iranian attack on a cargo ship earlier in the week.
