Russia’s crude oil production dropped to its lowest level in a year in May, a month when Ukraine intensified attacks on its energy infrastructure. According to OPEC data, Russian producers averaged 9.009 million barrels of crude oil per day in May.
This figure marks a decline compared to April and fell 690,000 barrels short of Russia’s production target under OPEC+. The assessment is based on data published by OPEC on June 11.
Increased Pressure on Energy Infrastructure
Moscow faced significantly increased pressure on its energy infrastructure in May. Ukrainian forces launched at least 31 attacks throughout the month targeting Russian refineries, oil export terminals, and pipeline infrastructure. This was the highest monthly total recorded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Kyiv states that the purpose of attacks on Russian oil facilities is to weaken Moscow’s ability to finance the war. Recent data shows this campaign is adding extra pressure on Russia’s energy sector, which is critical for export revenues.
According to Bloomberg’s calculations, Russian crude oil processing rates continued to decline in June, reaching the lowest levels in two decades. This assessment is based on forecasts from EA Analytics, part of Energy Aspects Ltd.
Crimea and Logistics Routes Targeted
Ukraine’s deep strike campaign expanded throughout 2026. On June 11, a fire broke out at the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai following a drone attack reportedly carried out by Ukraine. The facility processes about 6.25 million tons of crude oil annually and is one of southern Russia’s largest refineries.
On the same day, the Ukrainian military announced its goal to isolate occupied Crimea from Russia. Robert Brovdi, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, told Reuters in an interview that they plan to isolate Crimea soon.
Brovdi noted that Russian military cargo traffic on the R-280 Novorossiya highway, which connects Russia to occupied Crimea, dropped by 71% in the last two weeks. According to him, Ukraine aims to increasingly hinder Russian troops and defense industry workers from operating in Crimea and other occupied areas.
Local officials appointed by Russia and monitoring channels reported that military targets in occupied Crimea were hit on the night of June 11, damaging several bridges on the peninsula’s land connections. Mikhail Razvozhayev, head of the Russian-appointed administration in Sevastopol, said air defenses shot down 33 Ukrainian drones and repelled two major attacks.
The same statement reported one woman injured and damage to residential buildings and vehicles. The official said no critical infrastructure was damaged. However, local reports mentioned explosions and smoke near Komyshova and Kozacha bays, around Striletska Bay, and over Omega Bay.
Volodymyr Saldo, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson Oblast, said bridges near Preobrazhenka and Myrne, a road bridge on the Perekop–Armiansk route, and a bridge near the village of Stavky were targeted. Saldo stated initial inspections found damage and experts are assessing the structures.
A bridge was also reportedly hit in Armiansk, north of Crimea, with drone sounds and multiple explosions reported from the area. Recent attacks aimed at disrupting Russian logistics lines have brought renewed focus to the peninsula’s land connections.
Ukraine’s Strike Capacity Increases
Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukraine struck approximately 180,000 Russian military targets in May, a 12.7% increase compared to April. Syrskyi said Ukraine holds a 1.5 to 1 advantage over Russian forces in FPV drone usage, and this gap has grown in recent months.
According to Syrskyi’s data, Ukrainian forces intercepted about 4,000 Russian Shahed-type drones in May, targeted nearly 10,000 Russian drone operator positions, and completed 12,500 missions with ground robotic systems. Additionally, around 2,000 strikes were carried out with medium-range strike systems in May, hitting 414 Russian headquarters, command points, troop concentrations, and other military targets.
This situation shows Ukraine is simultaneously pressuring Russia’s war logistics and energy infrastructure. The decline in oil production, attacks on military targets, and pressure around occupied Crimea reveal the escalating economic and military dimensions of the conflict on the ground.
