Anatoly, a taxi driver in Moscow, Russia's capital, complains that the low-quality gasoline he has been buying in recent weeks will ruin his car's engine. Speaking to Al Jazeera and withholding his last name for security reasons, Anatoly said, "The engine is already sounding like a sick heart... The government allows a 'temporary quality drop,' but what am I going to do when I need spare parts?"
Anatoly's anger is directed at the Kremlin's military miscalculations and Ukraine's almost daily drone attacks, which have caused gasoline shortages nationwide. The 49-year-old taxi driver said of Ukraine, "They got us good. They don't knock; they kick the door in."
Noticeable shift in pro-Kremlin rhetoric
While Russia's top military officials have not commented on the Ukrainian attacks, even the Kremlin's most fervent supporters have changed their once triumphalist tone. Vladimir Solovyov, the host of a popular show on Rossiya 1 TV, said in mid-June, "We must prepare for hardships and sacrifice." Solovyov's remarks, having previously called for Ukrainian cities to be "wiped out" with nuclear strikes, reflect the growing pessimism.
Military bloggers, even more pessimistic due to their proximity to the frontline, are increasingly calling for mobilization. A blogger writing under the name "Prizrak Novorossii" (Ghost of New Russia) on Telegram stated in late June that the Kremlin must begin mass mobilization because Russians "foresee major changes and possible catastrophes due to the negative dynamics of hostile developments." The blogger added that Ukraine is using "asymmetric long-range drone strikes with technological solutions that Russia is still trying to catch up to."
'I'm afraid my son will be drafted'
The prospect of mobilization frightens many mothers. Kseniya, a mother of two from the western city of Tula, told Al Jazeera, "I'm afraid my son will be drafted, but we don't have the money to send him abroad." Reacting to the claims that Putin brings stability, Kseniya said, "We were told thousands of times that Putin brings stability, yet what we see is total chaos. Turns out the emperor has no clothes."
In a televised statement on June 28, Putin acknowledged the gasoline shortage, saying, "We are observing a certain deficit, but it is not critical. There is damage, but the affected facilities are being restored quite quickly and the problems that arose are not critical." The leader, who rarely acknowledges Ukraine's capability, said that drone attacks "are obviously causing problems."
Analysts: Russian air defense inadequate, strikes will continue
Military analysts note that the Kremlin has invested in the wrong tools of war, while Western sanctions have hampered efforts to ramp up new weapons production. Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany, told Al Jazeera that Moscow has largely invested in Iranian-designed Shahed drones and Iskander ballistic missiles, which "serve to strike Ukraine painfully but do not solve the defense of Russia's rear area."
Mitrokhin said that to fully stop Ukraine's medium- and long-range drones, the Kremlin would need to invest in producing mobile Pantsir air defense systems. Noting that existing Russian air defense systems were designed against Cold War-era missiles and cannot hit low-speed drone swarms, Mitrokhin observed that Russia currently needs at least 6,000 Pantsir systems, trained crews, and sufficient missiles for a three-layer defense along the 1,200-kilometer frontline, border, and Black Sea coast. "But it has none of these, and won't have them in the near future. That means Ukraine's effective strikes will continue," he said.
The analyst added that because Moscow lacks a Starlink-like satellite modem, drones cannot be manually flown more than 100 kilometers from their operators on Ukrainian highways. He emphasized that Western sanctions hinder scaling up weapons production and that Russia responded late to Ukraine's threats because it "underestimated the enemy."
Signs of economic and political collapse
Moscow's battlefield losses are accompanied by economic and political turmoil. In Russia, which is experiencing a record budget deficit and economic contraction, public discontent is rising while repression of opponents continues. Kremlin critic Russian economist Vyacheslav Inozemtsev commented on Telegram, "The latest trends are like a constantly stretched bow; it will either release or break."
Pavel Luzin, a military analyst at the Washington D.C.-based Jamestown Foundation, told Al Jazeera that Russia's problems stem from its obscurantist, rigid, and heavy-handed approach, and that it is engaged in an evolutionary struggle with Ukraine's democratic, decentralized structure. Luzin said, "Russia's terror tactics arise from its underlying organizational, intellectual, technical, and technological weakness."
