At the G7 summit, the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough that would quickly end the war in Ukraine appears distant, according to veteran analyst Paul Goble. Goble said that behind closed doors, ongoing contacts are unlikely to yield short-term results due to the major power balances involved.
Before arriving at the summit in France, Trump claimed to have had very productive talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that "something could be done." However, Goble argued that this optimism does not align with the realities on the ground or at the negotiating table.
Search for Negotiations Behind Closed Doors
The report, citing five diplomats and officials from Europe, conveyed that Trump might be more willing to support Ukraine strongly and pressure Russia in exchange for Europe's assistance in clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz. In the same context, there is a possibility that G7 countries could provide military support for a ceasefire arrangement with Iran, with European leaders seeking clearer backing from Washington on Ukraine in return.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that talks with Trump gave him "a certain optimism," while noting that the European side is only ready to take steps on mine clearance under specific conditions. These conditions include an official US request and approval from relevant regional actors.
Goble approached these expectations cautiously. The analyst, a former US State Department advisor, emphasized that he does not anticipate a major diplomatic breakthrough in the near term.
"I don't think a breakthrough is imminent," Goble said, adding that while being hopeful is not entirely wrong, the capacity to resolve fundamental issues remains extremely limited. According to him, the main problem is the lack of a unified stance among Europe, Washington, and Moscow.
Goble noted that Europe is divided between countries that strongly support Ukraine and those that take a more cautious approach. Summarizing this division with the words "Europe is not a united front," the analyst pointed out that the continent does not speak with one voice on the war.
He also described Washington's stance as unpredictable, highlighting that Trump has sent conflicting messages about Ukraine and Russia at different times. According to the analyst, this fluctuating position further clouds the prospects for a quick agreement.
Goble said small agreements might be possible on limited issues such as Black Sea transit. However, he warned that such partial compromises do not mean the war will end soon.
The analyst stressed that the idea of the war ending within weeks or a few months is overly optimistic. He also reported that Zelenskiy proposed meeting with Putin at the G7, but Moscow is not ready for such talks.
Zelenskiy also raised the possibility of holding the meeting in the US. According to Goble, it is unlikely that Putin would participate in such a format without seeing a clear outcome beforehand.
The War’s Focus Shifts from the Negotiation Table to the Battlefield
Goble said the most significant change in the war is happening not at the negotiation table but on the battlefield. He particularly emphasized that Ukraine's use of drones has altered the psychological dimension of the conflict.
According to the analyst, Ukraine's drone attacks have brought the war deep into Russian territory, shaking the rear areas where Russian society felt secure. Images of drones striking apartment buildings, oil depots, and bridges are now visible to ordinary Russians.
Goble noted that compared to six months ago, the war has become much more visible inside Russia. He believes the Kremlin’s messages aim to alleviate this psychological pressure.
He interpreted Putin’s open discussions about drone attacks with Russian soldiers as an effort to calm both the military and the public. The analyst said that within the Russian army, some factions want a harsher response, while others prefer the war to end.
Goble stated that the Kremlin is under increasing internal pressure and that Putin feels compelled to demonstrate either success or a turning point. He added that this pressure could push Moscow toward more symbolic or punitive attacks on Ukraine.
Evaluating Russian attacks on Kyiv’s religious and cultural sites, Goble said such targets might send a message to hardliners within Russia. According to the analyst, the hardline Russians expect a visible retaliation that shows Ukrainians are also suffering.
