- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.42+0.06%
- EUR55.41+0.20%
- GOLD4,178.40+0.20%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,293-1.02%
- October 16, 202612°
- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.42+0.06%
- EUR55.41+0.20%
- GOLD4,178.40+0.20%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,293-1.02%
- October 16, 202612°
Expectations for U.S.-Iran diplomacy push Brent crude below $100
Expectations that diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran could resume drove the November Brent crude futures price down by about 4% to $99.75 a barrel. West Texas crude also fell to $92.14 amid expectations that supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz could ease.
Expectations that diplomatic contacts between the United States and Iran could resume lowered the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets. The November Brent crude futures price fell by about 4% to $99.75 a barrel.
Brent had risen to as high as $105 the previous day and ended the session at $103.87. West Texas crude futures for November were also trading at $92.14 a barrel at the same time.
Oil markets monitor U.S.-Iran diplomacy
U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly strengthened expectations that tensions between Washington and Tehran could ease.
Expectations of a reduction in tensions eased supply concerns, particularly those related to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the impact of geopolitical risks in the Middle East on oil prices was also limited.
The 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly will begin in New York on September 22. More than 150 heads of state and government, along with numerous senior officials, are expected to attend the meeting, which will be held under the theme “Rebuilding Trust and Reigniting Global Solidarity: Accelerating Action on the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals towards Peace, Prosperity, Progress and Sustainability for All.”
Developments in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine war and other regional conflicts, are expected to be discussed during the General Assembly. Diplomatic efforts to restart talks between the United States and Iran are among the issues being monitored by oil markets.
Qatar mediates between Washington and Tehran
Majed Al Ansari, spokesman for Qatar's Foreign Ministry, announced that different ideas had been under discussion for about two weeks to restart talks between Washington and Tehran.
Al Ansari said Qatar's mediation team was maintaining contacts with Tehran and Washington to assess the possibility of restarting the talks. He said the team was conducting diplomatic contacts between different capitals to make progress.
Statements regarding Washington's willingness to reach an agreement supported expectations that U.S.-Iran tensions could ease and supply risks in the region could diminish. Trump's indication that he had been considering airstrikes against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen but had for now abandoned the option also contributed to the decline in perceptions of geopolitical risk.
Saudi Arabia's oil flows rise again
Following attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The development helped ease supply concerns in the markets.
According to provisional data, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports fell to 2.4 million barrels per day in August, their lowest level since 2013. Exports have risen above 4 million barrels per day so far in September.
Assessments dated September 18 noted that oil flows from the Middle East remained strong despite the disruption to the East-West pipeline. Total oil flows from the region averaged 17.1 million barrels per day over the past 10 days, 6.1 million barrels per day below the 2025 average.
Interest-rate expectations weigh on prices
Expectations of another interest-rate hike by the end of the year are weighing on oil prices after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the first time since July 2023.
Rising energy costs in the United States are strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy, supporting the view that economic activity and oil demand could slow. Expectations of tighter monetary policy are also strengthening the dollar, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies and pushing prices lower.
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