The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has published its August MARS Bulletin, which assesses the development of agricultural crops and yield expectations across Europe. The bulletin outlines the impact of hot and dry weather in Europe on 2026 crop forecasts.
A persistent high-pressure system affecting the region from early July to mid-August limited cloud formation and rainfall. As a result, hot weather persisted, while water losses caused by recurring heatwaves exceeded the amount replenished by precipitation.
Temperature gap reaches 6 degrees in Western Europe
As the drought intensified in the first half of August, daily average temperatures in Western and Southwestern Europe, as well as southern parts of Central Europe, rose 4 degrees above seasonal norms.
In some regions of France, the difference reached 6 degrees. Rising temperatures and water shortages disrupted the development of summer crops, causing plants to dry out prematurely.
Declines forecast for soybeans and maize
Across the European Union, soybean yields in 2026 are forecast at 14% below the average of the past five years. Yield losses of 12% are expected for silage maize and 7% for grain maize.
Potato yields per hectare are projected to come in 6% below the average of the past five years, while sugar beet yields are expected to be 5% lower and sunflower yields 3% lower.
Hot and dry conditions also significantly reduced grassland productivity and the availability of grazing land. This has heightened concerns about the supply of animal feed in Europe.
Forecasts for France fall by up to 30%
In France, which experienced its hottest summer in the past 20 years and its driest summer since 2022, yield expectations for all summer crops were forecast at between 7% and 30% below the average of the past five years.
