Finland’s President Alexander Stubb assessed the possibility of Moscow attacking NATO territory and said Russia would not want to attack the world’s most powerful military alliance. Stubb described predictions that Russia could be ready for such an attack by 2029 as speculative and lacking supporting evidence.
According to Stubb, this assessment does not mean that allies should ease their security measures. The Finnish president said that maintaining constant readiness for the worst-case scenario would help prevent a possible attack.
Emphasis on NATO deterrence
Stubb said his approach to Russia rested on two main pillars: intelligence and NATO’s deterrence capacity, which he argued was superior to that of all other military powers.
Stubb said NATO’s deterrence was based on conventional forces, missiles and nuclear weapons, adding that it would make no sense for any power to test the alliance’s resolve.
Possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine
The Finnish president also expressed skepticism about the possibility of Russia carrying out a nuclear attack in Ukraine. Stubb said China’s foreign minister had raised the issue during a visit in the summer and had told him that China would not allow such a development.
Stubb said he believed China’s position constituted effective deterrence.
Call for communication between Europe and Moscow
Stubb argued that Russia’s information warfare aimed to create fear in Europe and fuel debate over whether Moscow would escalate tensions, use nuclear weapons or attack NATO.
Stubb said Russia’s options were limited and noted that the main escalation step available to the country could be a new mobilization. He said such a decision could carry a political cost within Russia.
Emphasizing that diplomatic efforts to end the war should continue, Stubb called for the United States and Russia to remain in contact. The Finnish president said he viewed communication with Moscow positively and that Europe should also seek direct contact with the Kremlin despite hybrid attacks.
Stubb said a European country’s resumption of dialogue with Russia would help improve understanding of developments in the region. Stressing the importance of communication at the political level, Stubb said he was concerned that unrealistic perceptions of threats from Europe’s developments could take shape in Moscow.
