Refinery disruptions and problems with export infrastructure have put pressure on domestic fuel supplies in Russia's energy market. To make up for the shortfall, the country has imported more than 1 million barrels of gasoline by sea since late July, while sales at gas stations have been restricted in some regions.
According to calculations by S&P Global Energy experts, the volume of crude oil processed at Russian refineries fell to an average of 3.7 million barrels per day in July. This was 28 percent below the average for last year.
In August, the Orsk, TANECO, Ilsky, Bashneft-Novoil and Yaroslavl refineries were targeted in attacks. Production disruptions also occurred at major facilities in Volgograd, Saratov and Ryazan from late July onward.
Imports increased as domestic demand went unmet
The decline in production also affected the gasoline market. At the beginning of July, Russia's gasoline production fell to a level capable of meeting only about 65 percent of seasonal domestic demand.
The Russian government extended the temporary ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027, in an effort to ease supply shortages. The government also asked oil companies to increase deliveries to regions experiencing fuel problems.
Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea and Kpler show that more than 1 million barrels of gasoline have been transported to Russia by sea since late July. A total of 1,006,000 barrels of gasoline originating in India were shipped to the country via Egypt. A 300,000-barrel gasoline cargo loaded in Morocco, whose origin was unclear, also reached Russia.
In addition to seaborne shipments, Russia also purchased gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan. Belarusian gasoline shipments to Russia by rail rose 13 percent in July from the previous month to 212,000 tons. Kazakhstan's shipments in the same month amounted to approximately 1,000 tons.
Oil product exports declined as crude oil flows continued
The problems in the refinery sector affected Russia's crude oil and oil product trade in different ways. According to data from the International Energy Agency, oil product exports fell by 400,000 barrels per day in July from the previous month to 1.4 million barrels per day. The decline from the same period last year was 1.3 million barrels per day.
Crude oil exports fell by 200,000 barrels per day month on month in July to 5.6 million barrels per day. Despite this, they were up by 800,000 barrels per day from the same month last year. Thus, while crude oil shipments continued, refinery problems disrupted gasoline and diesel production.
Refinery crisis puts pressure on energy security
Natalia Losada, senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects, said that Russia's need to import gasoline and jet fuel in particular revealed a serious weakening of its refining system. Losada said that global supply conditions could remain tight, particularly in the diesel market, if attacks by Ukraine continue. She also said that lower fuel demand in the winter than in the summer could provide some relief to the market.
Francesco Sassi, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said Russia's emergence as an importer of oil products posed a risk to energy security and was economically unsustainable in the long term. Sassi said Russia's position in the global energy system depended on the security of its transportation, storage, refining and distribution infrastructure.
Paolo Scafetta, senior petrochemicals specialist at ICIS, said Russia could be forced to retain more oil products in the domestic market and secure additional supplies of gasoline and diesel if refinery disruptions continued. Scafetta said this could reduce oil product exports and increase imports, raising supply pressure in global oil product markets and causing tighter conditions in Europe's diesel market.
