- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.42+0.06%
- EUR55.41+0.20%
- GOLD4,186.70+0.40%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,660-0.57%
- October 17, 202611°
- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.42+0.06%
- EUR55.41+0.20%
- GOLD4,186.70+0.40%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,660-0.57%
- October 17, 202611°
Oil prices drop on US-Iran deal signals, Brent falls below $80
Oil prices fell sharply as diplomatic statements from the US and Qatar raised hopes of resolving the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped 4.6% to $79.89 a barrel, while WTI fell 5.3% to $76.11.
Diplomatic signals from the US and Qatar sparked a sharp decline in global oil markets. On Tuesday, August 4, 2026, the barrel price of Brent crude fell 4.6% to $79.89, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 5.3% to $76.11.
Brent, which climbed to $86.33 during the day, and WTI, which reached $82.33, turned lower after officials' statements. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since mid-July.
Diplomatic efforts for the Strait of Hormuz
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached "today or tomorrow." Bessent stated that he saw many ships leaving the strait and that other vessels were waiting to pass.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari announced that diplomatic efforts for a resolution are continuing, with Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman in close coordination to facilitate negotiations and that draft proposals have been shared between the parties.
Market anticipates supply increase
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "Prices fell on news that a draft for a possible reconciliation between the parties is being worked on." The market is pricing in that the reopening of the strait will increase exports from Gulf countries and ease the tightness in global energy supply that has been disrupted for months.
Before the war began on February 28, about one-fifth of global oil supply and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Physical supply tightness persists
Goldman Sachs noted that despite the drop in prices, the physical oil market continues to show a supply deficit. The bank estimated that global trackable inventories fell by about 6.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks.
The decline was attributed to reduced shipments from the Gulf and Red Sea, a drop in Russian exports, and increased Asian imports. The bank said that Gulf oil exports are about 36% lower than before the war, whereas at the beginning of July this deficit had reached 80%.
Saudi Arabia's oil exports dropped by about 2.4 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year. Russia's crude and condensate exports fell by 1.3 million barrels per day over the past two weeks amid loading disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal.
No significant improvement in strait traffic
Despite diplomatic optimism, no significant improvement has been seen in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb over the past two days. Oil production in the Middle East also remains below pre-war levels.
ANZ analysts stated that pressure on Gulf exports persists, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has shown only a slight recovery from very low levels, and attacks on ships continue to restrict flows.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an unidentified projectile struck a cargo ship 20 nautical miles northeast of Hasab, Oman, and authorities are investigating the incident.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude will remain in the $80-90 range until a new US-Iran deal is finalized or there is a major escalation in attacks. The bank estimated Brent's fair value at $80, indicating that current prices do not include a geopolitical risk premium.
Stay Updated with RuskiGazeta
Subscribe to be informed about special news, developments and announcements. We will keep you informed.
By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy
