Geopolitical developments linked to the Middle East, rising oil prices and volatility in bond yields stood out in global markets. Investors are watching how the growth and core personal consumption expenditures data due from the US will alter expectations for central-bank monetary policy.
Brent crude for November delivery rose 0.5% to trade at 103.1 after US President Donald Trump rejected reports that he was preparing to take steps toward easing sanctions on Iran. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, also targeted Trump in remarks on negotiations and war.
Rising oil prices have heightened inflation concerns, strengthening expectations that central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), could pursue tighter monetary policies. Concerns over persistent inflation, public spending and companies’ increased borrowing to finance artificial intelligence investments also supported demand for higher yields in the bond market.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note stabilized at 5.24% after reaching 5.30% the previous day, its highest level since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.56% after rising to 5.62%, its highest level since 2002. The two-year Treasury yield reached 4.97%, its highest level since May 2024, and moved sideways at around 4.90%.
Expectations that artificial intelligence investments will accelerate the US economy were among the factors contributing to the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Money markets were pricing in a series of Fed rate hikes over the course of next year, while the economic data due for release could influence the direction of those expectations.
At an artificial intelligence meeting at the White House, Trump hosted Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI President Greg Brockman. Trump said after the meeting that it had been good and productive.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said risks to achieving the inflation target had increased, while risks related to the labor market had declined. Barr said additional policy adjustments might be needed for inflation to return to the target within a reasonable period.
New York Fed President John Williams said there was no emergency following the policy step taken this month. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described inflation remaining above the 2% target for five and a half years as “playing with fire.”
US and European markets move in different directions
Following comments from Fed officials, the dollar index held at 101.5. Gold fell 0.1% to $4,180 per ounce. US consumer confidence fell below expectations to 81.9 in September, while JOLTS job openings declined to 7.079 million in August, also below expectations.
On the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.26%, the S&P 500 declined 0.17% and the Nasdaq lost 0.09%. US stock-index futures, meanwhile, began the new day higher.
Geopolitical tensions, energy costs and expectations regarding possible Fed rate moves were decisive in European stock markets. The eurozone economic sentiment indicator fell 0.5 points to 97.9 in September, while the consumer confidence index declined from minus 15.5 to minus 16.5.
Germany’s public debt rose to €2.7535 trillion in the second quarter, driven by spending from special funds established for infrastructure, climate investments and the defense industry. Dan Jorgensen, the European Union commissioner for energy, said the EU had paid more than €100 billion in additional costs this year for the same amount of oil and natural gas.
Expectations of new tax increases in France’s budget combined with concerns over the debt problem and political deadlock ahead of next year’s presidential election. These developments increased pressure on the country’s stock market. The euro-dollar exchange rate fell to 1.1312, its lowest level since May 2025, amid energy prices and expectations that the Fed could pursue a tighter policy.
Germany’s DAX 40 rose 0.1% and Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.09%. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.53%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.45%. European stock-index futures started the day mixed.
China’s support measures watched in Asia
Investors’ cautious stance ahead of the US data led Asian stock markets to move in different directions. The Chinese government said it would introduce new support policies to limit the economic slowdown and stabilize the property market.
The People’s Bank of China cut the one-year lending rate of three policy banks by 25 basis points to support the real economy. The rise in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from 49.8 to 50.1 in September pointed to a return to growth in the sector.
Weak domestic demand and the prolonged stagnation in the property market are weighing on household and business confidence in China, while geopolitical uncertainty and rising trade tensions are increasing risks to the export outlook. In Japan, retail sales fell 1.2% month on month in August, while industrial production declined 1.7%.
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng moved sideways.
Borsa Istanbul ends session down 2.40%
The BIST 100 index ended the day at 12,290.58 points on Borsa Istanbul, down 2.40%. The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index also fell 0.19% in the evening session compared with the regular-session close.
Dollar/TL ended the previous day flat at 48.9894. At the opening of interbank trading, the exchange rate stood at 49.0130, up 0.1% from the previous close.
An Economic Coordination Meeting was held under the chairmanship of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with the participation of economic officials and senior executives of relevant institutions. Developments in the capital markets were assessed at the meeting.
Erdoğan announced that a fully authorized board chaired by the vice president had been established to coordinate the process involving funds slated for liquidation. The Fund Coordination Board is planned to provide overall coordination so that liquidation procedures are carried out with due regard for investors’ legitimate rights and the public interest.
The State Supervisory Council launched an examination and audit process concerning investment fund transactions in the capital markets. The Capital Markets Board presented a roadmap for payments to investors whose entitlement reconciliation had been completed in funds covered by the liquidation, based on the funds’ assets and liquidity position.
In Türkiye, the unemployment rate, foreign trade balance, services producer price index, and monetary and banking statistics will be monitored during the day. In Germany, unemployment and inflation data will be watched, while in the US, ADP private-sector employment, personal income, personal spending, core personal consumption expenditures and second-quarter growth data will be followed.
Analysts view 12,200 and 12,100 points as support levels and 12,400 and 12,500 points as resistance levels for the BIST 100 index.
